Good morning, friends and enemies. In today's video, we are going through the most likely

breakout running backs in 2026. I'm going to score all them on a scale of 1 to 10 who is the most

likely breakout candidates. And the way this is going to work is we're going to look at running

backs ranked outside of the top 12 right now per ADP. So if they're already getting

drafted as a top 12 guy, they're already expected to break out. So we're going to start at running

back 13. We're going to double that and go through running back 26. And I'm going to talk about each

player that has never finished as an RB1 so far in their career and what I think the likelihood

of them finishing as an RB1 this year will be on a scale of 1 to 10. Now, I also want a caveat. The scale of 1 to 10, if I give a player a 9.5 out of 10, does not mean I think they have a 95% chance of finishing as an RB1 this year. It will be relative to the other players on this list. So if I think the RB17 has the best chance of every player on this

list to finish as an RB1, he might get a 9 and 9.5 or a 10 relative to the other players on the

list. So their chances are as strong as any other player to break out this year. The other important

criteria, this will not take injuries into account. The lens I'm looking at is purely from a going into the season,

their current situation, the likelihood of them finishing as an RB1 by the end of the year.

Like if we get to Kyle Menangai, I'm not going to sit here and say, if DeAndre Swift got hurt,

sure. We're talking about if all players equal, all players stay safe. All right. Let's stop talking

about the rules. Let's get into some

players here. The RB 13 in ADP right now was the number three overall pick in the NFL draft. That is, of course, Jeremiah Love, of the Arizona Cardinals. It's pretty messy right there in this backfield, right? They went out and signed Tyler Auxier to some real money. James Connor broke his ankle last year, but it was early, and they also brought him back in, so expected to, you know, pull some carries there. They still have Trey Benson. I think there's a real chance he gets traded or moved out of this backfield right now. It's a little bit too much firepower. So when I look at Jeremiah Love, what I like about his draft position is like you're not paying what those like Ezekiel Elliot, Sequan Barkley prices were. You're able to typically get him around, you know, the end of the second round, early third round. And while there's going to be a lot of talk about like, oh, you're getting him at his floor. I think the conversation to have is what is the likelihood that he reaches his floor or that he ends up, you know, performing at his floor versus the ceiling. So it's easy

to say, oh, you're getting him at his floor. But if he performs at his floor and that's a 70% chance likelihood of him performing that way, then was it really that good of a pick? And, you know, you can break down whatever the odds are that you want to. But I think looking at the situation right now, I think he'll lose a bit of base work.

I think that's kind of obvious with Al Jir there and James Connor there, but probably not a crazy amount, right? They're a team that just invested top five capital into this running back. You're going to assume they're going to use them at a heavy pace. We'll see what the goal line roll ends up boiling down to. Last year, Arizona as a team scored six rushing touchdowns inside the five-yard line. That is

horrendous. They did, however, have 126 running back targets last year. It was a team pass

attempt total of 649, which is obviously extremely, extremely high, but it's still a good target

share. There lands somewhere, I think, in the 17 to 18 percent range in terms of target share

to the running back position. And that's obviously where a guy like Jeremiah Love, who's incredibly explosive, incredibly athletic will dominate the passing down role, I think, in this offense on a team that's not expected to win a lot of games. Right now, if you go to the look ahead lines, Arizona is the underdog in every single game on their schedule this year. And I don't blame Vegas because their schedule is actually insanely difficult.

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