The Math Bias That Makes You Misjudge COVID-19
Curiosity Weekly
Warner Bros. Discovery
4.6 • 964 Ratings
🗓️ 24 September 2020
⏱️ 13 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Learn how the mathematical mistake of exponential growth bias makes people underestimate the spread of COVID-19, how crocodiles have survived since the dinosaurs, and how puns activate both sides of the brain.
"Exponential growth bias" can make people underestimate COVID-19 by Steffie Drucker
- Robson, D. (2020). Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19. BBC.Com. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19
- Shlomo Benartzi. (2019, June 17). If You Don’t Save Enough, Perhaps You Have ‘Exponential Growth Bias.’ WSJ; The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-dont-save-enough-perhaps-you-have-exponential-growth-bias-11560737101
- Dispatch 1: Numbers | Radiolab | WNYC Studios. (2020). WNYC Studios. https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/dispatch-numbers
- Lammers, J., Crusius, J., & Gast, A. (2020). Correcting misperceptions of exponential coronavirus growth increases support for social distancing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(28), 16264–16266. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006048117
- Banerjee, R., Bhattacharya, J., & Majumdar, P. (2020). Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures in the times of COVID-19. ArXiv.Org. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.01273
Crocodiles Are Prehistoric Monsters Who Survived The Dinosaur's Extinction by Reuben Westmaas
- Pappas, S. (2017, July 5). Super Croc with T. Rex Teeth May Have Chowed Down on Dinosaurs. Livescience.Com; Live Science. https://www.livescience.com/59697-super-croc-with-t-rex-teeth-ate-dinosaurs.html
- Osborne, H. (2017, July 4). Ancient Giant “Ghost” Crocodile With T-Rex-Sized Teeth Discovered in Madagascar. Newsweek; Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/ancient-giant-crocodie-t-rex-teeth-madagascar-631590
- Nova. (1998, April 28). The Extraordinary Lives of Crocs. Pbs.Org; Nova. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/extraordinary-lives-of-crocs/
“Getting” Puns Means Both Sides of Your Brain Are Working Together by Reuben Westmaas
- Original episode: https://www.curiositydaily.com/nasa-cryosleep-chambers-your-brain-on-puns-why-red/
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hi, you're about to get smarter in just a few minutes with Curiosity Daily from |
| 0:04.8 | Curiosity.com. I'm Ashley Hamer. And I'm Natalia Reagan. Today you learn |
| 0:09.4 | how something called the exponential growth bias makes people underestimate the spread of COVID-19, |
| 0:14.7 | how crocodiles have survived since the dinosaurs, and how puns activate both sides of the brain. |
| 0:20.4 | Let's activate some curiosity. |
| 0:22.4 | Ooh! What if I Let's activate some curiosity. |
| 0:23.0 | Ooh. |
| 0:24.0 | What if I told you that understanding math could save lives? |
| 0:29.0 | When it comes to stopping the spread of COVID-19, it's true. |
| 0:33.0 | Coronavirus cases grow in a different way than we're used to seeing things growing. |
| 0:38.0 | And a better understanding of the math at play can lead to more support for things like social distancing and wearing masks. |
| 0:44.8 | The mathematical principle I'm talking about is called exponential growth. |
| 0:49.5 | Here's an example of exponential growth. |
| 0:51.9 | Imagine a bank offered a deal that would double your money every day. |
| 0:55.6 | So you invest one dollar to open an account. How soon would you become a billionaire? |
| 1:01.6 | Five years? Ten years? You may be surprised to learn that the answer |
| 1:05.8 | is 31 days. Just about one month. You're not alone if your guess was totally off. |
| 1:12.8 | In fact, so many people underestimate how quickly the value increases |
| 1:17.2 | that scientists have coined a phrase for it. |
| 1:19.6 | Exponential growth bias. |
| 1:22.4 | Money can feel a little abstract, so let's try another example. |
| 1:26.0 | This one was featured on Radio Lab at the start of the pandemic. |
... |
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