The Markets vs. the Economy - Explaining the Disconnect

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 25 February 2016

⏱️ 31 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs' chief economist, and Jeff Currie, global head of Commodities Research, explain why volatility in the oil, equity and credit markets could be sending false signals about the underlying strength of the broader economy. This podcast was recorded on February 23, 2016. All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced, in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research or a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to the listener. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefor (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast are not necessarily those of Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by Goldman Sachs to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any Goldman Sachs entity. Copyright 2016 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	This is Exchanges of Goldman Sachs where people from our firm share their insights on developments
0:13.7	currently shaping markets, industries, and the global economy.
0:17.1	I'm Jake Seaward, Global Head of Corporate Communications here at the firm.
0:21.4	It's a tale of two data sets when it comes to gauging the recession risk for the
0:25.2	U.S. economy. On the one hand, steady job numbers have the U.S. on a relatively surer footing
0:30.4	than its developed market peers. On the other hand, oil prices and
0:34.4	equity markets have fallen substantially to start 2016. Today I'm joined by
0:38.7	Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, chief economist, and Jeff Curry head of Commodity Research to explore this apparent market
0:45.8	economy disconnect.
0:47.0	Jan, Jeff, welcome to the program.
0:49.9	Good to be here.
0:50.9	Good to be here.
0:51.9	So, Jan, U.S. unemployment is on the decline.
0:55.0	Wages were up 2.5 percent last year.
0:57.4	Lower gas prices are putting more money in the consumer's pockets, yet equity in credit markets
1:02.2	have fallen significantly to start 2016.
1:05.0	So what's happening? What are the markets telling us about what's coming or are the markets just operating in their own world?
1:11.0	I'd say two things.
1:12.0	One is that I do think the markets are a little too pessimistic about the outlook for growth
1:16.8	and a little too low on their outlook for inflation.
1:20.1	So I think it's partly that we basically disagree with the views that are incorporated in the markets at this point,
1:26.4	although that's softened a little bit over the last couple of weeks as markets have stabilized a bit.
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Goldman Sachs, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of Goldman Sachs and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.