The Markets: Pricing in the probability of a recession

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.4 • 1K Ratings

🗓️ 12 May 2023

⏱️ 8 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Analyzing this week’s CPI print, continuing concerns in the banking sector, and the ongoing debt limit debate, Joseph Briggs, a global economist in Goldman Sachs Research, joins our latest episode of The Markets, a new weekly podcast from Goldman Sachs Exchanges.

Transcript

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0:00.0	inflation is down,
0:03.0	up.
0:05.0	The the
0:06.0	the the and ...
0:08.0	...
0:10.0	inflation is employment is up, but the debt ceiling looms.
0:17.0	This is the markets, a new series from Goldman Sachs exchanges.
0:22.0	Hi, I'm Sam Grobart. exchanges.
0:23.0	Hi, I'm Sam Grobart.
0:25.0	Today we're talking to Joseph Briggs, an economist in Goldman Sachs research.
0:29.0	Joseph, thank you for joining us today.
0:31.0	It's great to be here with you, Sam.
0:33.1	So of course the big news this week, Joseph was the release of the latest
0:35.9	CPI data which showed inflation slowing a bit more than expected.
0:40.5	Markets have been reacting positively to this news.
0:42.5	What's been your interpretation of the data?
0:45.3	Overall, the CPI print was pretty positive.
0:48.0	41 basis points in core inflation is obviously too firm,
0:51.9	but a lot of the strength was driven by an increase in used car prices
0:55.2	that we expect is going to reverse as we move through the summer.
0:58.3	We also saw that the March slowdown in shelter inflation that we saw last month was sustained in April, which is good news because
1:04.8	we think that the shelter inflation should continue to cool as we move through the year because
	...

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