The Macroeconomic Signals Have Rarely Been This Confusing

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 786 Ratings

🗓️ 18 August 2022

⏱️ 17 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, Chainalysis and FTX US. Homebuilder sentiment is going through its worst stretch since the 2007-2008 housing and financial crisis. New York manufacturing data also surprised with some of the weakest numbers in a decade. On the other hand, U.S. industrial production rose to a new all-time high. So are we headed for a recession or not? NLW explores. - Nexo is a security-first platform where you can buy, exchange and borrow against your crypto. The company safeguards your crypto by relying on five key fundamentals including real-time auditing and insurance on custodial assets. Learn more at nexo.io. - Chainalysis is the blockchain data platform. We provide data, software, services and research to government agencies, exchanges, financial institutions and insurance and cybersecurity companies. Our data powers investigation, compliance and market intelligence software that has been used to solve some of the world’s most high-profile criminal cases. For more information, visit www.chainalysis.com. - FTX US is the safe, regulated way to buy Bitcoin, ETH, SOL and other digital assets. Trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors and trade ETH and SOL NFTs with no gas fees and subsidized gas on withdrawals. Sign up at FTX.US today. - I.D.E.A.S. 2022 by CoinDesk facilitates capital flow and market growth by connecting the digital economy with traditional finance through the presenter’s mainstage, capital allocation meeting rooms and sponsor expo floor. Use code BREAKDOWN20 for 20% off the General Pass. Learn more and register at coindesk.com/ideas. - “The Breakdown” is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and research by Scott Hill. Jared Schwartz is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsors is “The Now” by Aaron Sprinkle. Image credit: Sadeugra/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.
0:09.2	It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.
0:14.8	The breakdown is sponsored by nexo.io, chain aliasis, and FtX, and produced and distributed by CoinDesk.
0:22.9	What's going on, guys? It is Wednesday, August 17th, and today we are looking at the macro outlook.
0:29.5	Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it,
0:33.4	give it a rating, give it a review, or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation,
0:37.3	come join us on the breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly slash
0:42.0	breakdown pod. Also a disclosure as always. In addition to them being a sponsor of the show,
0:46.8	I also work with FTX. Finally, I want to tell you guys about CoinDisc's new event,
0:51.9	the investing in digital assets and enterprises summit or
0:54.7	ideas. It's an event that facilitates capital flow and market growth by connecting the digital
0:59.9	economy with traditional finance. Join CoinDesk October 18th and 19th in New York City for a 360-degree
1:07.4	investment experience where you can source, invest, and secure the next big deal in digital assets in one place.
1:13.7	If you're interested, use code breakdown 20 for 20% off a general pass. You can register right now at
1:20.1	coin desk.com slash ideas. So today, as I mentioned, we're doing a bit of a macro review.
1:27.4	Yesterday we caught up on crypto. Today, we're doing a bit of a macro review. Yesterday, we caught up on
1:28.8	crypto. Today, we're looking at what's going on in the broader economy. Last week, we had one of
1:34.3	the first really positive macro weeks we've had in a long time. Inflation surprised to the
1:40.4	downside for the first time in about a year. In other words, inflation was less than what
1:45.4	economists predicted. Economist's average prediction had inflation for July coming in at 8.7% year
1:52.4	over year, but in fact, the number was 8.5% year over year. 8.5% is, of course, extremely high
1:59.7	by historical averages, but the thing that markets were
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