The Macro Chain Reaction of Oil Shocks | Forward Guidance

The Breakdown

Blockworks

Investing, Business

4.8 • 806 Ratings

🗓️ 19 March 2026

⏱️ 48 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

While The Breakdown is between seasons, we’re sharing a recent episode of Forward Guidance. Felix is joined by Bob Elliott to break down how oil shocks impact inflation, growth, and central bank policy—and why markets may be underestimating the risks. As always, remember this podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice. – Forward Guidance: https://www.youtube.com/@ForwardGuidanceBW Follow Bob: https://x.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow David: https://x.com/dcanellis — Nexo is the premier digital wealth platform. Receive interest on your crypto, borrow against it without selling, and trade a range of assets. Now available in the U.S with 30 days of exclusive privileges. Get started at http://nexo.com/breakdown Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ —-- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:57) Oil Shock Challenges & Today vs 2022 (10:38) Nexo Ad (11:13) Oil Shock Challenges & Today vs 2022 (Con’t) (16:12) The Energy Shock Impact on Households (20:14) How Will Central Banks & Bonds React? (30:40) Nexo Ad (31:37) Oil Shock Sequence of Events (33:26) Iran War’s Asymmetric Regional Impact (39:57) What Happens to Gold? (43:02) Understanding a Wartime Economy (47:34) Final Thoughts - - Disclaimer: Nothing said on The Breakdown is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Host and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Central banks never ease into an oil shock.
0:03.6	It doesn't happen.
0:04.6	When you have an oil shock, it's a very difficult scenario for basically policymakers to respond to,
0:09.6	because it both increases inflation and decreases real growth.
0:13.8	I think a lot of people are getting ahead of themselves on talking about the disinflationary impact of an oil price rise.
0:18.6	The first step is prices go up, real spending goes
0:21.8	down and that's where we're at right. It has to get bad before someone does something about it
0:27.2	in order to make it fun. People are kind of looking through that has to be bad in order for
0:31.8	something to happen and just assuming everything will be okay forever. And that's just not how
0:36.6	markets or economies certainly have
0:38.4	worked over the last 100 years. Hello, breakdown listener. This is your host, David Canellas.
0:43.2	We're taking a small break as we prepare to roll out a new season. So for now, please enjoy this
0:47.6	recent episode from another Blockworks podcast, Forward Guidance, all about the impact of oil
0:52.6	shocks in light of the Iran war and the situation
0:55.0	with the Strait of Hormuz. So, enjoy the insights into macro and we'll see you again for the breakdown soon.
1:00.5	This episode is brought to you by Nexo. Step into a new era of digital wealth. Earn interest on your
1:05.8	digital assets, borrow against them without selling and trade all in one platform. Get started at nextoe.com slash breakdown.
1:11.6	Quick break before we continue, Blockworks' flagship institutional conference, Digital Assets Summit,
1:16.6	is back in New York City this March 24th through 26th.
1:19.6	Das brings together allocators, asset managers, policymakers and the builders actually shaping
1:23.6	crypto's next phase. Not the hype cycle, but the infrastructure and capital behind it.
1:28.0	This year summit represents over $4 trillion in assets under management, with more than 150
	...

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