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From the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal, this is Potomac Watch.

It's election Eve, 2024, and the polls say the presidential race and the races for the House

and Senate are all too close to call. Soon it will be all over but the crying or the rejoicing,

depending on your preference.

But today we'll take a setback and look at the election and draw some of the larger lessons

that we think we have learned over the last year or so, even before we know all of the results.

This is Potomac Watch, the opinion podcast of the Wall Street

Journal. We're here every day, and I'm Paul Giego, the editor of those pages. And this is a special

pre-election Monday edition with my colleagues, Kim Strassel, Bill McGurne and Kyle Peterson.

So let's start, Kim. I want to ask just what do you think we've learned,

if anything, over the weekend? The big poll that shook up the race was the one from Iowa,

the Iowa poll that Ansela runs for the Des Moines Register. And she's a high-quality pollster,

and she found, shockingly, that Trump was losing the state by minus three points.

And even if that poll was wrong by, say, six points, Trump is only winning Iowa by three,

that would mean, which means he's underperforming in the Midwest. And that probably means with

college-educated women and men, that would be a bad omen for Trump, Kim.

...