The Lender of Last Resort (EP.300)
Animal Spirits Podcast
The Compound
4.7 • 2.1K Ratings
🗓️ 22 March 2023
⏱️ 54 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Today's animal spirits is brought to you by our friends at Y-charts. |
| 0:03.7 | Michael, one of the charts I've been playing up a lot lately. Two-year treasury rate. |
| 0:07.5 | You can see here I got it going back over the last 10 years or so and I don't know. |
| 0:13.1 | I know this has been a crazy time but you know the meme of the dog I have no idea what I'm doing. |
| 0:18.8 | I don't know that one. |
| 0:19.7 | Look at the picture on the scroll down a little bit on our dock here. |
| 0:23.0 | I'm sure you've seen this before. |
| 0:24.4 | Yeah, of course, of course. |
| 0:25.6 | And I don't know who's more to blame whether it's the bond marker to the Fed. |
| 0:28.3 | The two-year treasury rate is basically a proxy for the federal funds rate. |
| 0:32.2 | A lot of people say it leads the Fed funds rate. |
| 0:34.9 | Just the crash we saw in the last, I don't know, 10 days or so. |
| 0:39.4 | It looks like the stock market crash almost doesn't it? |
| 0:42.3 | How quickly that happened? |
| 0:43.6 | It seems like that's not supposed to happen for rates. |
| 0:46.1 | I mentioned this on a recent podcast that we've done someone I don't know what twin it was |
| 0:50.8 | that going into a Fed meeting for the last year, there was no mystery. |
| 0:56.3 | There's no suspense. We knew what they were going to do. |
| 0:58.8 | Jim Bianco had this great chart showing the probability of where the Fed funds rate is going to be. |
| 1:04.2 | Either three days, four days, whatever it was before the Fed meeting, nobody knows right now. |
| 1:09.2 | 50-50, pause, they're going to go more. |
| 1:12.3 | So there is complete indecision. |
... |
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