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Animal Spirits Podcast

The Lender of Last Resort (EP.300)

Animal Spirits Podcast

The Compound

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.72.1K Ratings

🗓️ 22 March 2023

⏱️ 54 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On today's show we discuss the latest from the banking crisis, the market's reaction to bank runs, what the Fed should do next, why service inflation is higher than goods inflation, why crypto is rallying this year, how much money it takes to be rich and much more.   Find complete shownotes on our blogs...  Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense  Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor  Like us on Facebook  And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.      (Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, received compensation from the sponsor of this advertisement. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Today's animal spirits is brought to you by our friends at Y-charts.

0:03.7

Michael, one of the charts I've been playing up a lot lately. Two-year treasury rate.

0:07.5

You can see here I got it going back over the last 10 years or so and I don't know.

0:13.1

I know this has been a crazy time but you know the meme of the dog I have no idea what I'm doing.

0:18.8

I don't know that one.

0:19.7

Look at the picture on the scroll down a little bit on our dock here.

0:23.0

I'm sure you've seen this before.

0:24.4

Yeah, of course, of course.

0:25.6

And I don't know who's more to blame whether it's the bond marker to the Fed.

0:28.3

The two-year treasury rate is basically a proxy for the federal funds rate.

0:32.2

A lot of people say it leads the Fed funds rate.

0:34.9

Just the crash we saw in the last, I don't know, 10 days or so.

0:39.4

It looks like the stock market crash almost doesn't it?

0:42.3

How quickly that happened?

0:43.6

It seems like that's not supposed to happen for rates.

0:46.1

I mentioned this on a recent podcast that we've done someone I don't know what twin it was

0:50.8

that going into a Fed meeting for the last year, there was no mystery.

0:56.3

There's no suspense. We knew what they were going to do.

0:58.8

Jim Bianco had this great chart showing the probability of where the Fed funds rate is going to be.

1:04.2

Either three days, four days, whatever it was before the Fed meeting, nobody knows right now.

1:09.2

50-50, pause, they're going to go more.

1:12.3

So there is complete indecision.

...

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