Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

Good afternoon. Today is Thursday, March 12th, and I'm your host, Kim Khan. Our top story is so far. The U.S. Israel-around

conflict has triggered what the International Energy Agency calls the largest supply shock in the

history of the global oil markets, disrupting roughly 7.5% of worldwide supply. In its monthly

report, the IEA set escalating hostilities following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February

28th have severely curtailed flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy arteries.

Tanker traffic through the strait, which carried about 20 million barrels per day of crude and refriend products last year,

has fallen more than 90% according to multiple media reports.

The agency estimates the conflict could reduce global oil supply by around 8 million barrels per day this month.

On the economic front, that sound echoing through Wall Street, economists erasing their Fed forecasts.

Goldman Sachs pushed back its expectations timing for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut this year,

citing higher inflation risks tied to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

Goldman now expects the FOMC to begin

easing in September rather than earlier in the year in June. The bank still anticipates two cuts

in 2026, with the second likely in December. But if the labor market weakens sooner and more substantially

than we expect, we do not think concern about the impact of higher oil prices on inflation

and inflation expectations

would be an obstacle to earlier rate cuts, economists said.

Among active stocks, Blue Al Capital told investors at a recent private conference

that its sale of $1.4 billion in loans from three of its funds included no backstops

or hidden incentives, according to Bloomberg.

Blue Al said the four institutions that bought the debt did so on an arm's length basis,

...