The Job Market Isn’t Crashing in 2026 - Something Bigger Is Changing
Ken McElroy Show
Ken McElroy
4.7 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 8 January 2026
⏱️ 47 minutes
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | The job market has been stuck in a slow to hire, slow to fire phase all through 2025. |
| 0:06.3 | And now we're going to dive into what will happen in 2026. |
| 0:10.0 | I don't actually see it getting any better. How about you? |
| 0:12.9 | Yeah, there's really two different narratives going on. You know, they're kind of diverging. |
| 0:16.6 | As some people think, some economists think it's going to rev up with Trump trying to stimulate the economy and others think due to AI and also just a slowdown of the economy. |
| 0:27.3 | Well, let's be clear. Trump will for sure try to stimulate the economy. |
| 0:31.0 | Yeah. That is the number one thing on his mind, right? Home affordability. He's trying to get their rates down. |
| 0:38.3 | He's trying to get people to borrow. |
| 0:40.7 | You know, he wants that momentum. |
| 0:43.2 | He also really, really understands real estate, which is extremely really important, I think, |
| 0:47.6 | because CPI represents, what, anywhere from 30 to 40% of the inflation rate. |
| 0:54.4 | So that owner's equivalent of rent or OER, which is what they call. |
| 0:58.2 | That is inflationary or not. |
| 1:00.6 | And we're not going to have that. |
| 1:02.2 | It's not going to be an inflationary component in 26 because of the concessions and the flat rents |
| 1:07.3 | and all the stuff that we're all experiencing right now from the overbuilding. |
| 1:10.2 | So he's going to have, he understands that. You know, he's a real estate guy, right? So I think |
| 1:16.2 | it's going to be a very, very interesting time. Yeah, I think why the data is so confusing is you do |
| 1:21.4 | have layoffs that have been ramping up like later into 2025. January is always a big layoff time because, you know, employers don't |
| 1:29.4 | want to do it during the holidays. So we're going to have more this month. But then at the same time, |
| 1:33.5 | we have GDP growth. So it's like the economy isn't doing like terrible, but at the same time, |
| 1:39.5 | we're seeing hiring an unemployment. Yeah, but I, I, here's the one thing, just like it's happening at a individual |
... |
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