Today, something alarming is happening to the job market for young people.

For the last year, as the unemployment rate for recent college graduates has crept ominously upward,

one of the questions I've reported most deeply is, is AI replacing young workers' jobs?

To make a long story short, I initially said yes.

Then some economists convinced me the answer was no.

Then some other economists convinced me the answer was yes,

then some other experts convinced me the answer was no,

and then some other researchers assured me the answer was yes, then some other experts convinced me the answer was no,

and then some other researchers assured me the answer was maybe.

If that's unclear to you, then very good.

You're paying attention because it is clear as mud to me.

What is clear is that something weird is going on with the elevated unemployment rate for young people today.

And no one is exactly sure what that thing is.

And in a way, that uncertainty is even scarier.

After all, if you have an illness and a doctor provides a diagnosis, even if it's a frightening diagnosis, at least you have an answer.

Oh, you can't breathe? Well, we did a CT scan. It's pneumonia. That sucks. But what sucks more is if you go to the

ER and you can't breathe and they do a CT scan. And one doctor says that's clearly pneumonia.

And another doctor says, you idiot, that's nothing like pneumonia. And then another doctor says you're both idiots because this machine isn't even good enough to diagnose pneumonia in the first place. And the doctors start screaming at each other in the ER room about methodology and test sensitivity and you're still there on the stretcher. Like, hey, I can't breathe over here. That is the labor market for young people today.

The experts are shouting at each other about evidentiary standards, and the patient is on

the table getting worse by the minute.

Today's guest is Roger Karma.

He's a staff writer at the Atlantic where he writes about economics.

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