The Israel/Hamas Ceasefire – Can it hold?

This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Podmasters

News, Society & Culture, Politics

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 16 January 2025

⏱️ 25 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

After 15 months of horror, a ceasefire and hostage release deal triggers rejoicing in Israel and Palestine. But the deal is ambiguous and built around only a gradual release of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages, with no agreement to end the war yet. While Trump rushes to claim credit, some fear the deal is so loose it might collapse. Could this conflict reignite? Gavin Esler talks to Middle East expert Dr H.A. Hellyer of RUSI, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security, about Israel and Gaza’s fragile moment of hope. • From next week TINAD will be coming out every Thursday instead of Wednesdays, to give us more time to react to developing news stories. Patreon people will still get episodes as early as possible. • No longer on Twitter? Follow Gavin Esler and This Is Not A Drill on BlueSky. • This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan. • Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production podmasters.co.uk Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:27.8	slash setup.
0:30.9	The long last, I can announce a ceasefire and a hostage deal has been reached between Israel and Hamas.
0:40.3	At last, some good news, heavily qualified good news from Gaza with the negotiated ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
0:49.3	In announcing the Gaza ceasefire, President Joe Biden confirmed that hostages are to be freed in stages.
0:56.0	Israel is prepared to negotiate a, quote, permanent end to the war, and Palestinians can look forward
1:02.0	to, quote, a future without Hamas.
1:05.0	Yet however welcome the ceasefire, is it really just a possible hostage deal so far? And at the end of the Biden presidency,
1:12.4	are we witnessing once more in the Middle East the triumph of hope over decades of brutal experience?
1:19.1	I'm Gavin Esler, and this is not a drill. As Joe Biden was publicly taking credit for months of American diplomacy and pressure to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza,
1:50.9	his successor in the White House, Donald Trump, was also claiming credit, suggesting the prospect of his presidency
1:57.3	focused minds in the Middle East to stop the conflict. However, welcome the deal in an
2:03.1	atmosphere of profound distrust and suspicion, the big questions remain. Can the prospect of a
2:09.5	temporary ceasefire become something more permanent and the ultimate question somehow lead towards
2:15.3	a lasting peace? So far, the agreement includes an initial six-week
2:20.0	phase of the ceasefire with stage releases of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. But the
2:26.1	future is less clear, with further phases still to be agreed on. To talk through the possibilities,
2:31.9	I'm joined by Dr. H. A. J. Hel. A. J. H. Am, is a senior associate fellow
	...

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