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Business Daily

The Iran war oil shock: Is there worse to come?

Business Daily

BBC

Business

4.4816 Ratings

🗓️ 26 May 2026

⏱️ 18 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

When the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz's closure disrupted global oil supply, some experts predicted crude oil prices as high as $150, or even $200 per barrel. That hasn't happened. Why not? And is it because the way the global oil markets work mean the pain for households and businesses is still to come?

Presenter: Ed Butler Producer: Josh Martin

(Photo: Getty/matejmo)

Transcript

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0:00.0

BBC Sounds, Music, Radio, podcasts.

0:07.0

Hi there, I'm Ed Butler.

0:08.9

Welcome to Business Daily from the BBC World Service.

0:12.2

Today, we are taking some different perspectives

0:14.6

on surely the biggest question facing the global economy right now,

0:18.9

just how high is the price of oil likely to go?

0:22.9

Every commodity CEO, commodity trader, anybody who gets their hands dirty, is telling you

0:28.6

you have a problem. Contrary to the IEA, etc., this is not the greatest energy crisis in the world

0:34.9

ever in history. Yes, as the current price of crude oil hovers around the $100 mark,

0:41.3

even with a deal to end the U.S. Iran War and reopen the Strait of Hormuz,

0:46.1

there are some who predict things could be going to get a lot more expensive for the global economy.

0:51.5

Others are more sanguine.

0:53.3

That is our theme here on Business Daily from the BBC.

1:00.4

Let's kick off first then by introducing the first of our guests. Florence Schmidt is a senior energy strategist at Rabobank.

1:08.3

Florence, hi. Explain for us, if you don't mind. What exactly you do there?

1:12.7

I mean, your job is to help companies and buyers of energy try and predict where prices are

1:16.8

heading, right?

1:17.9

Hi, and thanks, Ed, for having me on. Indeed, I'm an energy strategist at the bank, and we try to

1:23.4

kind of forecast where energy prices are heading to in the next six months to four years ahead.

1:31.6

We're looking at crude oil prices, but also natural gas, diesel, jet fuel. And the idea is to

1:37.3

help our clients that have a high exposure to energy costs, you know, manage their risk and exposure to those prices in the

1:46.2

long term. And help all our listeners today, I hope, as well. Great to have you on. So we've got a

...

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