The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next

The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett

FlightStory

Business, Education, Society & Culture

4.5 • 17.8K Ratings

🗓️ 12 March 2026

⏱️ 89 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

White House war advisor ROBERT PAPE reveals why Trump is trapped in a war with Iran, the risk of a nuclear breakout, the role of China in the conflict, and how the US is losing control of the Middle East. Robert Pape is a renowned political scientist and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. He explains: ▪️The 3 stages of the escalation trap locking the US into war ▪️Why precision smart bombs trick leaders into strategic failure ▪️The hidden reality of Iran's 400kg enriched uranium stockpile ▪️How killing the Supreme Leader made the Iranian regime more resilient ▪️The pattern that connects Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran (00:00) Intro (02:01) What’s Really Happening In The World Right Now (04:01) I’ve Worked With The White House For The Last 20 Years (04:48) What Iran War Simulations Reveal About The Next Conflict (08:56) What Really Happened When The U.S. Bombed Iran’s Nuclear Sites (11:57) Does Removing A Leader Actually Collapse A Regime? (16:05) Iran’s New Supreme Leader May Be Even More Hostile To The U.S. (26:04) The Escalation Scenario Most People Aren’t Paying Attention To (41:12) Ads (43:11) What The Next U.S.–Iran War Could Actually Look Like (47:31) What Happens If The U.S. Hadn’t Bombed Iran - Would War Be Worse? (52:06) Does Trump Really Influence Netanyahu’s Decisions? (54:02) Are Trump’s Global Decisions Driven By Legacy? (1:04:30) Could The World Be Heading Toward Another Genocide? (1:05:52) What Happens After “Stage 3” (1:07:14) Ads (1:12:11) China’s Quiet Strategy For Global Dominance (1:13:15) Is America’s Superpower Era Ending? (1:16:29) Why China May Benefit From A U.S. Conflict With Iran (1:22:51) The Real Long-Term Prize The U.S. Is Fighting For Enjoyed the episode? Share this link and earn points for every referral - redeem them for exclusive prizes: https://doac-perks.com Follow Robert: X - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/CACnkUs LinkedIn - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/EhIzCvZ Substack - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/AtTbkWq The Diary Of A CEO: Join DOAC Circle - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/EVyBm53 The Diary Of A CEO book - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/67654nf The 1% Diary - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/2mrbk7t Conversation Cards - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/Ex8Yc9b Get email updates - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/7Az7mkJ Follow DOAC on Instagram - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/6KoLc6C Sponsors: Stan - Visit https://coach.stan.store/?ref=stevenbartlett&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode1 Fiverr - https://fiverr.com/diary and get 10% off your first order when you use code DIARY Wispr - Get 14 days of Wispr Flow for free at https://wisprflow.ai/steven

Transcript

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0:00.0	You've been running simulations on a war with Iran.
0:02.3	Yep, every strategy for 20 years, and it's playing out right now.
0:06.1	So I can tell you that we are losing control of the situation.
0:10.2	Like, we don't know where that nuclear material is.
0:13.9	But they have the material for 16 nuclear bucks.
0:18.0	And we've given them every incentive to develop them.
0:21.4	Professor Robert Pape might be the single most important, credible person we all need to listen to right now.
0:27.3	The Supreme Leader that we took out was against nuclear weapons. The new Supreme Leader,
0:32.6	and he's way more aggressive. He's advised two decades of presidents in the White House.
0:38.7	President Trump is really stuck, but he thrives in chaos. And spent 30 years building the curriculum that trains the
0:44.9	Air Force for the exact type of war that's taking place now in Iran. And one of the most mind-blowing
0:49.6	things I've learned is that there are three stages to this conflict. Unfortunately, Professor Robert
0:56.3	Pape, who has two decades of been correct with his predictions, gives a 75% chance that Trump
1:03.0	is about to escalate to stage three. In this episode, we're going to explain exactly what this
1:08.2	means.
1:13.6	Just give me 30 seconds of your time. Two things I wanted to say.
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1:19.6	It means the world to all of us and this really is a dream that we absolutely never had
1:23.6	and couldn't have imagined getting to this place.
1:25.6	But secondly, it's a dream where we feel like
1:28.2	we're only just getting started. And if you enjoy what we do here, please join the 24% of people
1:33.7	that listen to this podcast regularly and follow us on this app. Here's a promise I'm going to make to you.
	...

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