The Iran Conflict's Strategic Dimension

Modern War Institute

John Amble

News, Government

4.8 • 818 Ratings

🗓️ 8 March 2026

⏱️ 66 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

What were the strategic calculations that drove the United States and Israel to launch a military operation aimed at a wide range of targets in Iran? And are the fundamental objectives of the two partners fully aligned? Inside Iran, as the regime's resilience and the military's capability are under more pressure than they have been in decades, how are institutions responding? What drove the decision to respond with drone and missile strikes throughout the region? How are the Gulf states positioning themselves as they have defended against Russian attacks? What role has the Gulf Cooperating Council played? What outcomes might emerge from the conflict and how are Iran's neighbors working to influence those outcomes? These questions offer insights into the strategic dimension of the ongoing US-Israeli operation against Iran. To examine them, John Amble is joined on this episode by three guests who share their insights on the strategic perspectives of the United States, Israel, Iran, and the Gulf states. Jonathan Panikoff is the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council and formerly served as the deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East at the National Intelligence Council. Sydney Laite is a former senior intelligence analyst who spent years focused on Iranian strategic decision-making. And Rory Miller is a professor of international politics at Georgetown University in Qatar, where he is the director of the Small States Research Program. The MWI Podcast is produced with the generous support of the West Point Class of 1974.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Israel's perspective is, at the end of the day, there has to be regime changed in order for this to have fundamentally been a success.
0:11.7	And I'm not sure that's where President Trump is.
0:14.0	The people selecting the Supreme Leader will be conservatives, ideologs, hardliners.
0:18.6	Even a selection during peacetime likely would have been a hardliner.
0:22.6	War time selection probably makes this even more likely.
0:24.6	There are many different divides and schisms within the GCC, on security, on energy, on other core national security issues.
0:33.6	But in a way, what's happened with the Iranians targeting the GCC states is it's brought them together on one issue that there is no disagreement on right now.
0:43.9	Hey, welcome back to the MWI podcast.
0:46.4	Brought to you with the generous support of the West Point Class of 1974.
0:50.0	I'm John Amble.
0:50.9	And on this episode, we're looking at the ongoing U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran.
0:56.0	Specifically, we're looking at the conflict's strategic dimension.
0:59.0	Even more specifically, we're examining that strategic dimension from several points of view.
1:04.0	First, you'll hear about the U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives and the decision to take military action,
1:09.0	including not just U.S.-Israeli strategic alignment,
1:12.5	but also where their objectives might diverge.
1:15.4	Next, you'll hear what this conflict looks like from an Iranian point of view, where the
1:19.1	regime's resilience and the country's military capability are under the greatest pressure
1:23.1	they've faced in decades.
1:24.9	And finally, there's a third strategic perspective that's really important to consider,
1:28.6	that of the Gulf states, both collectively and individually, who have not only been pulled
1:32.5	into the conflict as Iran has targeted them with missiles and drone strikes, but also
	...

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