It's the Brian Larisho on WNYC. Good morning, everyone.

On day two of the U.S. Iran ceasefire. Look at some of these headlines.

The Washington Post, after Trump pauses war,

Iranian fly flags of victory, not surrender. The Hill. Trump lost his nerve and surrendered to

a beaten Iran. The Atlantic. Trump made a deal that gives him nothing he wanted. And an article in

The New Yorker begins like this. A temporary truce can't erase

the chaos of a war that the White House started and never fully understood. Now, we'll talk to

a global affairs journalist Ishaun Thore who wrote that New Yorker article in just a minute.

But first, in case you weren't listening at 6.30 last night when we run the show Marketplace, here's a clip. This runs a minute. Here's a minute. But first, in case you weren't listening at 6.30 last night when we run the show

Marketplace, here's a clip. This runs a minute of economist Muhammad El Arrian laying out four

sequential stages of economic impact the war is having, some of which we haven't even seen yet.

But let me think in terms of the four phases,

and we are now the U.S. in phase two and phase three elsewhere.

While we started the year well, we got a massive shock in the shape of the war.

We had the first phase, which is done,

and we are living with it higher energy prices than would have been otherwise and higher interest rates than it would have been otherwise.

We then got phase two, which is more inflation in the pipeline.

That's where the U.S. is now as the largest economy.

Parts of Asia, unfortunately, have moved to phase three,

which is not only you get phase one and phase two, but you also get demand destruction.

So you start worrying about economic growth. And of course, phase four, which I hope we never get to,

would be financial instability undermining the economy.

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