Hello everyone. My name is Tiang, head of research of Varian perception and today I'm joined by Simon White, managing editor at Varian

perception and we're going to have a discussion around a potential new dawn for commodities.

So Simon, you know, the kind of commodity new dawn, the bullish commodity trade, that's been somewhat of a widowmaker

tray for the past few years you know we've seen a number of people try and call the

bottom and things like oil things like natural gas but today it does feel like something's a bit different.

Structural and cyclical forces do seem to be coming together coming out of this recession.

Could you take us through what you think are going to be some of the key drivers for the commodity markets as we're heading to 2021?

Yeah, thanks, Tian. So this is based in a recent report that we put out that will release to Real Vision viewers.

And it's basically the title kind of gives it away.

It's the next commodity super cycle. And what we've seen basically is an alignment of drivers that have come together. Normally you get one or two things happening and it's kind of makes something quite interesting but today we've got a very compelling kind of lineup as you said structural and cyclical so you know the way I would think about it we have the overarching kind of theme of the macro drivers.

So we're in a very different,

what we've called the inflationary regime now.

You know, we've basically left the sort of era

of monetary policy dominance,

and now we have much more of activist fiscal policies and if you look

historically that tends to mean that the underlying inflationary risks have risen and in that

environment you know you kind of financial assets are unlikely to perform as well as real assets.

But on top of that, you know, we look at, we're always very data-driven in variant perception perception and we have built what we called

her capital returns framework and what that basically looks at is it looks

across all the industries and we try and find industries that are essentially

capital scarce so they've seen essentially money coming out of them for an extended period of time, investment coming out of them.

And that leaves them in a situation where they are really unable to respond to a change in demand.

...