The High Beta Crash (EP.232)
Animal Spirits Podcast
The Compound
4.7 • 2.1K Ratings
🗓️ 24 November 2021
⏱️ 50 minutes
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Summary
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| 0:00.0 | Today's animal spirits is brought to you by our friends at Y-charts. |
| 0:03.5 | Last week's show, we talked about how retail sales continue to be otherworldly, |
| 0:08.5 | up like 15%. |
| 0:10.4 | And a lot of people said, okay, that's fine. |
| 0:12.7 | What about inflation? |
| 0:14.0 | Boom. |
| 0:14.6 | Now show inflation after... |
| 0:16.4 | Pre-1980. |
| 0:17.6 | Pre-1980. |
| 0:18.5 | Now show after inflation is the new now show Japan. |
| 0:21.8 | So Y-charts actually has US real retail sales, real meaning after inflation. |
| 0:27.6 | They actually have it on a year-over-year basis. |
| 0:29.4 | So you take out the high and the low from the pandemic, |
| 0:32.2 | which you had this huge crater, and then you had this huge spike. |
| 0:36.0 | So those sort of offset each other. |
| 0:38.0 | The prints are still coming in hot. |
| 0:39.1 | So after inflation, US retail sales are still up over 8%. |
| 0:43.8 | That's the highest level, again, after inflation since 1999, |
| 0:48.7 | which is the highest level it's been pre-pandemic before. |
| 0:51.7 | So I get it, inflation is running hot, |
| 0:54.1 | and that's skewing a lot of numbers. |
| 0:56.2 | But people are still spending a ton of money right now |
... |
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