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The Grant Williams Podcast

The Grant Williams Podcast: Shifts Happen - Episode Eight FULL EPISODE

The Grant Williams Podcast

Grant Williams

Business, Business:investing, Investing

4.81.6K Ratings

🗓️ 17 July 2024

⏱️ 55 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In episode eight of Shifts Happen, Luke Gromen returns to discuss the current fiscal situation and its implications for rates trading, explaining how his views on the fiscal situation have made him unpopular among rates traders, as his predictions suggest that their industry may become obsolete. We also discuss the possibility that policymakers either don’t understand the situation, refuse to acknowledge it, or are too deep in to change course, and Luke also highlights the need for a new benchmark for pristine collateral, which he believes will be gold. Also under the microscope is the latest CBO report, which shows the need for a “super bubble” in the US, and Luke offers an explanation as to why he believes a recession in the US is unlikely. Finally, we conclude by looking at the potential outcomes of the current fiscal situation, including the possibility of retrenchment and reshoring or a dangerous escalation leading to nuclear war. Plenty to think about here with Luke once again on top form. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Before we get going, here's the bit where I remind you that nothing we discussed should be considered as investment advice.

0:16.0

This conversation is for informational and hopefully entertainment purposes only.

0:20.0

So while we hope you find it both informative and entertaining, please do your own research or speak

0:26.1

to a financial advisor before putting a dime of your money into these crazy markets.

0:30.8

And now, on with the show.

0:46.7

Welcome everybody to another edition of Shifts Happen joining me as always is the man who more than anybody else chronicles all these shifts in real time, the ever brilliant Luke Groen, hi mate, how the devil are you?

0:49.9

I'm doing great, Gran, how are you?

0:51.5

I'm fine, I'm bouncing around as always but nothing

0:56.2

seems to stop while I bounce around it just counts to speed up and every now

1:00.4

and then I need to kind of sit down and shake my head all the stuff that's going on.

1:03.8

But fortunately, I get to read your work and it condenses it all for me into one often depressing

1:10.9

almanac to tell me know what's going on.

1:13.8

So you and I haven't spoken on a podcast for sometime now

1:16.5

and there's always just so much to catch up.

1:18.2

The longer we leave it, the tougher it gets.

1:20.2

Now I want to start with something we were chatting about just off here before we started and that is

1:24.5

rates traders and I want you to explain to people in simple terms why you could possibly be the most hated

1:31.2

man in the rates trading market.

1:33.0

Because I think from that stems a lot of the stuff we're going to talk about.

1:37.0

I just, I had a couple of different people sitting in senior seats, well-recognized hedge funds that our friends and clients say,

1:47.2

Lou, these race traders fucking hate you. They fucking hate you. I'm on this macro chat or this macro group and your name comes up and like

1:58.4

that guy and growman and I said why I'm a nice guy I'm a personable I don't know harbor no ill well and what they said is that if you're right a lot of the world they know is over a lot in terms of range trading etc of the last 20 30 years and and

...

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