The Glory of Bear Markets
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 30 September 2022
⏱️ 27 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today’s Dividend Cafe is sort of the reason the Dividend Cafe started. I didn’t call it Dividend Cafe back then, I didn’t have a website for it, I didn’t post it on social media, it wasn’t re-published on a multitude of financial websites, there was no podcast, there was no video, and it didn’t have nearly 20,000 subscribers. In fact, there couldn’t be any “subscribers” because there was no organized list – just me sending an email from Microsoft Outlook manually to clients I thought would like to hear what I had to say. And the catalyst? A bear market.
The week I began doing this “weekly commentary” we were not in an “ordinary” bear market. In a ten day span Fannie and Freddie had been taken over by the government, Lehman Brothers had declared bankruptcy, AIG had gone down, Merrill Lynch ran into the arms of Bank of America, and my own firm at the time, Morgan Stanley, was in its own existential (but soon to solved) crisis. Mortgage bonds were collapsing, housing prices were utterly collapsing, and yes, the stock market was in freefall.
Today I write to talk about bear markets. Not societal collapse. Not the mother of all credit implosions. Not a deep and unbearable recession (the “great” recession). But bear markets. The kind where stocks drop and investors do one of two things. We are going to talk about those two things, and I hope when you are done reading you will not merely feel better about this bear market, but even just a little bit excited (as counter-intuitive to human nature as that may be).
So let’s jump on in to the Dividend Cafe, as it does what it was always created to do – present the unvarnished truth in matters of macroeconomics and investor behavior, and do so towards the greater end of the very purpose for which we at The Bahnsen Group work.
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.4 | Well, hello and welcome to the weekly dividend cafe podcast. I am your host of the weekly dividend cafe, David Bonson, and I say weekly dividend |
| 0:24.4 | cafe because I've been doing it every week since September of 2008. And the topic that |
| 0:32.9 | sort of catalyzed this weekly market commentary is the topic I'm going to talk about today. |
| 0:40.7 | Now, it's not exactly the same. |
| 0:42.9 | And in fact, there's some areas that are quite significantly different. |
| 0:45.7 | But the historical context of what created this weekly communication was the implosion of our nation's financial system that was resulting |
| 0:58.7 | in an equity bear market in September of 2008. The equity bear market, the history of bear |
| 1:06.9 | markets, what investors need to do about endearing bear markets. |
| 1:12.1 | That's what we're going to talk about today. |
| 1:14.5 | September 2008 was different. |
| 1:16.4 | We were in an equity bear market. |
| 1:17.9 | We were at that point getting close to double one. |
| 1:21.2 | If down 20 is bare, we were getting at that point close to down 40. |
| 1:26.9 | But within a 10-day period, you had seen the |
| 1:29.2 | implosion of Fannie and Freddie, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the saving from collapse of |
| 1:36.5 | Merrill Lynch and AIG, and a lot of vulnerability that I have written about, talked about, spoken |
| 1:42.6 | about, thought about a great deal over the years. |
| 1:46.4 | But back in September 2008, I started doing this weekly writing and there was no podcast, |
| 1:50.8 | there was no subscriber list, there was no video, and the name in Dividendon Cafe wasn't yet relevant. |
| 1:58.7 | I just wrote an email in Microsoft Outlook and I sent it each week to the clients who I |
| 2:05.0 | thought would like and need and benefit from hearing appropriate information and counsel. |
... |
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