The Global Stakes of the U.S. Election: Debt, The Dollar, and Military Power | Reality Roundtable #12
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens
Nate Hagens
4.8 • 552 Ratings
🗓️ 27 October 2024
⏱️ 75 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
(Conversation recorded on October 16th, 2024)
Ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, both of whom have distinct monetary and fiscal policies, there is much debate on the potential systemic consequences for the global economy. What is the current status of the United States in the socio-political landscape, and how might trends in energy, commodities, and geopolitical tension affect the actions and capabilities of the next U.S. presidential administration? In turn, how could this affect the global economy?
In this roundtable discussion, Nate is joined by financial analysts Luke Gromen and Michael Every to explore the precarious nature of current fiscal practices, the relationship between military power and economic stability, and the potential need for radical policy shifts worldwide. They also delve into the future of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency and the importance of price, availability, and stability of energy resources for thinking about future economic strategies.
What are the implications of NATO's actions in Ukraine for global financial relationships, and what are the resulting strategic dilemmas for Europe? How is China potentially using gold to prepare for a fundamentally different economy with fewer resources? Most of all, how can we begin to steward our economic systems in a more sustainable direction if we don't have a shared understanding of the values and goals that underpin everything we're doing, regardless of who the next U.S. President may be?
About Michael Every:
Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis. Michael has lived and worked in 9 countries and been in the industry for nearly 25 years, with previous roles at Silk Road Associates, the Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet. He holds a BA from Lancaster University, and a master's degree from University College London.
About Luke Gromen:
Luke Gromen is the Founder and President of research firm Forest For The Trees, LLC, whose goal is to aggregate a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for clients. Luke founded FFTT to apply what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a "unique ability to connect the dots" during a time when he saw an increasing "silo-ing" of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America. Luke has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | you have to ask the question, what's GDP for? |
| 0:02.0 | Not just what's the structure of it. What are we trying to do? What kind of society do you want? What kind of world do you want? Broadly, you know, big picture, what does the US want to be like? What does it want the world to be like that the US is in? Government planning everything is the road to hell. But if you give everyone complete freedom of choice and free will, you will achieve nothing if you don't have morality. |
| 0:23.0 | And the only way you can have a pure But if you give everyone complete freedom of choice and free will, you will achieve nothing |
| 0:22.0 | if you don't have morality. |
| 0:23.5 | And the only way you can have a purely free market is if everyone in the economy has a |
| 0:28.0 | completely moral sense of what are we here for? |
| 0:30.7 | What's GDP for? |
| 0:32.4 | Rather than just, I'm going to screw the next guy to try and get three or four basis points |
| 0:35.6 | more for the next month. |
| 0:39.6 | You're listening to The Great Simplification. I'm Nate Hagen's. On this show, we describe how |
| 0:45.4 | energy, the economy, the environment and human behavior all fit together and what it might mean |
| 0:51.6 | for our future. By sharing insights from global thinkers, we hope to inform and inspire more humans to play |
| 0:58.8 | emergent roles in the coming great simplification. |
| 1:06.9 | One of the unexpected benefits of hosting this show is after almost three years and 150 |
| 1:13.8 | guests, I now have repeat guests who can come back in interesting combinations |
| 1:21.8 | on reality roundtables. |
| 1:25.0 | With me today, our repeat guest, Michael Every, who is a global |
| 1:29.8 | strategist at the European Investment Bank, Rabel Bank, and Luke Groman, who founded and runs |
| 1:36.0 | the financial advisory firm, Forrest for the Trees LLC. This was recorded on October 16th. |
| 1:43.3 | We're going to release it before the election because there are many financial events with oil, with interest rates, with geopolitics, with gold, with the macro economy that move very rapidly. |
| 1:56.8 | This is a fascinating conversation that could easily have gone three or four hours. |
| 2:02.6 | As you all know, I don't care where the market is headed per se. |
... |
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