Hey, everybody.

Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics.

I'm Dmiti Kontakos.

I'm here with Jonathan Hackett, Jack Murphy, and Nick Trickett, our very special guest. He's an associate director at S&P Global Energy. He knows his stuff, basically, when it comes to this. And we always talk, all of our shows, we talk about, you know, the bullets and the bombs. and, like John said before we started, we got to start talking about the beans, too, because it all, you know, you can't talk about one without talking about the other. So I figured let's have a smart guy come on and, like, teach the, teach the troglodytes what, you know, what's going on. Besides, it's me and Jack are the tro Tragal Ice. John's actually pretty, pretty intelligent, so I'll keep him out of this. Depends how many crayons you feed me. That's true, too, yeah. He was a Marine for a long time, so don't hold that against him. Yeah, Nick, thanks for coming on. Really appreciate it. Yeah, thank you for having me. Of course. my first thing as i was like we've seen you know the smp for one like because there's so many factors that we you know

we try and judge like what's going on in the economy the s&P really hasn't taken a huge hit i think

it's down like six percent is which is like it's at an all-time high. So, you know, the 6% can be gained quickly back. I want, give us kind of a lay of a land of what we should kind of expect in the next coming few weeks. Oh, God, that's tough. Okay. So, sorry. I know. Pretty broad. Sorry. No, no, no, it's fine.

So, I mean, just to start off, just to be clear, like, I think I'm saying,

it's kind of in a personal capacity.

So I'm not going to try to represent, like, my company's views and all that.

But you started by, you know, mentioning the S&P 500 is kind of this way that we think about assessing the relative effect of the crisis.

It's incredibly unhelpful.

There are a couple reasons for that.

One is equity markets aren't always, you know, the real world, right? relative effect of the crisis. It's incredibly unhelpful. There are a couple reasons for that.

One is equity markets aren't always, you know, the real world, right? Like there's that disconnect.

But I think the bigger thing to think about here is that a huge portion of the markets concentrated in tech. And that story for now is still relatively resilient. I mean, obviously there's been

sell-offs and people are finally cooling on it. But in general, a lot of those gains and the hope that this is going to be

short-term is sustaining that kind of relatively, like surprisingly okay performance given how

scared people are. So first, I start by just saying the equity market doesn't yet understand

what they're in for fully because people can't accept it because it's just really, really, really bad.

So I think the easiest way to think of like the scale, you know, we're talking about losing in the range of 10 million barrels a day of oil supply in a market that's kind of consuming somewhere in the range of 102 million barrels a day.

And, you know, there's enough inventory on the water or in storage for crude oil specifically

that you can manage that for like a bit.

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