The Geopolitical Shock Playbook (Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley) | #623

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Idea Farm

Management, Business, Investing

4.8 • 978 Ratings

🗓️ 20 March 2026

⏱️ 45 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Watch on YouTube. My guest today is Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer. In today’s episode, Mike Wilson explains how a rolling recession has given way to a staggered recovery, and why he expects leadership to broaden beyond mega-cap stocks into small caps, cyclicals, and international markets. He highlights growing risks from AI disruption, private credit weakness, and the Iran conflict. To close, Mike discusses a shift beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio toward a more flexible 60/20/20 approach that includes assets like gold. (0:00) Starts (1:31) Mike Wilson on rolling recessions and rolling recoveries (5:28) Market implications of Iran conflict (9:52) Market cap weight vs. equal weight indices (15:41) Thoughts on the Fed (20:01) Is 60/20/20 the new 60/40? (23:23) Geopolitical shocks (35:48) AI's impact and bullish on healthcare (42:03) Outlook for global economic recovery ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Alpha Architect - To learn more about CAOS, read the Fund's prospectus and important information, visit ⁠funds.alphaarchitect.com/caos Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	Welcome to the Medfavor Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth.
0:10.9	Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser.
0:16.9	Better investing starts here.
0:19.5	Metfabor is the co-founder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management.
0:22.5	Did it industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambria's funds on this podcast.
0:25.8	All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Cambria investment management or its affiliates.
0:31.2	For more information, visit cambraeinvestments.com.
0:34.4	Managed futures have historically kept low correlations to both stocks and bonds. However, many of these strategies can be complex, opaque, and difficult to explain to clients. What if you could invest in the core ideas behind managed futures, but implement them in a transparent, cost-effective, and simple way? Join the Alpha Architect team live on March 26 to discuss how the Alpha
0:55.4	Architect high inflation and deflation ETF, ticker symbol Hyde, HIDE, may help investors build
1:01.8	more robust, evidence-based portfolios with trend-falling concepts that are accessible, transparent,
1:07.1	and easy to understand. Use the link in the show notes to register.
1:11.5	Welcome back, everybody.
1:13.2	Today we have one of our favorite guests back on the show.
1:16.8	We're lining up for Michigan versus UVA preview.
1:20.2	Our guest today is Mike Wilson,
1:21.7	chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley.
1:25.7	Mike, welcome back to the show.
1:27.2	Thanks, Matt.
1:27.7	Great to see you.
1:28.8	Last time we spoke a couple years ago, as always, been a little crazy time in markets.
1:33.9	And I was reading some of your pieces that I thought we'd start with this concept you've been
1:38.4	talking about quite a bit lately that I think the phrase is now a bit common now.
	...

Please login to see the full transcript.

Previous episode | Next episode

Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Idea Farm, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.

Generated transcripts are the property of The Idea Farm and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.