Welcome to In Conversation, the regular podcast of InCompass.

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This is Paul Adamson, I'm in conversation with John Pete.

John Pete is the political and Brexit editor of the economist and was for many years

the Europe editor of the economist. So we're going to try John and cover both sides of the discussion

on Brexit. If we can, let's start first of all. We're not asking you to go through all the detail

of all the shenanigans for the House of Commons recently in the next couple of weeks. But from

your point of view, what do you think is the most likely outcome in the next few weeks? As of now, I find it difficult to imagine a deal being done

at the European Council on 17th of October, because I think the two sides are too far apart,

with the British side still demanding basically a wholesale ditching of the Irish backstop

and Michel Barnier demanding more or less either that or something very equivalent to it.

So I don't think we'll get a deal and I think the question then becomes quite quickly,

can we have an extension or will Britain, under Boris Johnson,

desperately try to drop out without a deal on the 31st of October?

And my money is on an extension, which would be embarrassing for him.

But he says, isn't he, quite categorically, in no way would he ask for an extension.

He has said that, and he clearly thinks that's the right way to bargain with the EU.

But I can envision a scenario where he says that was my policy

and I tried my hardest to do it, but I was prevented by MPs, by the EU, by judges, the establishment

and I've been forced to ask an extension and he then will look ahead to an election in which he

runs on the basis that I represent the people against the establishment who are trying to stop us leaving the EU and hope to win a majority.

So he will say when he asks the extension, I will use that time period to hold an election, otherwise the EU 27 would say no, or there has to be an election or a referendum to justify yet another extension.

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