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The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

The Fix Is In. Government to Rig GDP Again. – Ep. 84

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Peter Schiff

Business News, Business, Investing, News, Politics

4.65.9K Ratings

🗓️ 21 May 2015

⏱️ 27 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary


* Earlier today latest FOMC minutes released
* Once again the weather is blamed for missed expectations, pretending the economy is better than it is
* Now the Fed dismiss numbers as inaccurate, because seasonal adjustments are off
* Why does the government need to seasonally adjust the numbers
* Yearly GDP is the number that matters
* Once the numbers begin adjusting the numbers you open the floodgates to manipulation and subjectivity
* Wall Street analysts tend to be more optimistic for the first quarter
* Studies show that Consumers spend most money in Q4; by the following Q1 consumers are taking a break
* Same studies show Q2 is usually stronger
* Why does the government have to come back with a new GDP measurement in order to come up with a bigger number?
* To come up with low unemployment numbers they find ways to under-calculate the unemployed and count under-employed
* Analysts are discounting weak data and expecting eventual rate hikes
* The Fed is denying the weak economy not because they want to raise rates, but because they can't admit that their monetary policy has failed
* Mixed economic data came out this week
* Housing Market Expectation Index dropped from 56 in April to 54 in May - missing estimates for fifth time in 6 months
* Housing Starts surged to 6 or 7-year high
* Lingering optimism for a recovery
* Walmart came in far below estimates, attributing miss to the strong dollar
* Walmart is a net importer, so the strong dollar should work in its favor
* Big drop in gasoline prices in Q1 did not provide a boost for Walmart because the underlying economy is weak
* Los Angeles is the largest city in the country to pass the $15/hr minimum wage
* They staggered the increase over 5 years, so adverse effects will not be directly attributed to those who voted for the increased minimum wage
* It will be difficult to measure decisions not to hire as a result of the minimum wage
* The $15/hr minimum wage makes it illegal to hire low-skilled workers for less, preventing them from gaining skills in order to earn more later
* We're hiring at Schiff Gold - If you are interested contact Matthew Malleo 800-465-3160

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Well, earlier today we got the release of the most recent FOMC minutes.

0:15.3

And once again, the Federal Reserve is pretending that the economy is a lot stronger than it

0:21.8

is because they're continuing to dismiss the very weak first quarter data as being weather

0:28.9

related.

0:29.9

Keep talking about transitory effects, which in general means the weather.

0:35.8

That was the only thing that was really transitory.

0:37.7

I don't know that it's the port strike or the strong dollar.

0:41.6

It's been the weather that's been the scapegoat the juror and not just today, but it's

0:46.7

been the scapegoat for some time when the economy is much weaker in the first quarter.

0:53.9

In fact, now we're having a lot of talk from the Fed.

0:58.2

In fact, earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, they came out and

1:03.4

they said that they think the GDP really grew at about 1.8% in the first quarter as opposed

1:10.0

to the 0.2% that was originally released, which is likely to be revised down to a big negative

1:15.8

number.

1:17.1

But the San Francisco Fed is basically saying, hey, who cares?

1:20.8

We don't think the numbers are accurate because the seasonal adjustments are not big enough.

1:26.4

They want to double seasonally adjust it.

1:29.7

Therefore, they can manufacture a lot more growth.

1:32.3

Well, maybe we'll have to start triple adjusting or quadruple adjusting the numbers until we

1:37.5

get a number that we think is correct.

1:40.0

If the data doesn't work, then fix it.

1:42.6

In fact, now they're going back in time over the past 30 or 40 years.

...

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