Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Thursday, December 14th, and today we are talking FOMC Day,

macro day, you know it. Before we get into that, however, if you're enjoying the breakdown,

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All right, friends, well, yesterday was the FOMC meeting conclusion and the Fed closed out the last

meeting of the year by holding the policy rate steady between 5.25 and 5.5%. That's now four out of the last

five meetings without a policy change, leading to the inevitable

conclusion that the hiking cycle is over.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened his press conference by stating, as we approach the end of the

year, it's natural to look back on the progress that has been made towards our dual-mandate

objectives.

Inflation has eased from its highs, and this has come without a significant increase in unemployment.

That's very good news. But inflation is still too high. Ongoing progress is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain. However, while Powell struck a conservative tone in his overview, the message

embedded in the economic projections provided by Fed officials was overtly optimistic. The meeting

was accompanied by the quarterly releases of the summary of economic projections or SEP, where

FOMC members pencil in their forecast for a range of economic data. The message was clear.

GDP growth was forecast to stabilize to 2% by 2025. The unemployment rate was projected to remain low, peaking just above 4%.

Inflation was expected to continue to decline, arriving at the 2% target by 2026, but rapidly

closing the gap over the next year. Without exception, Fed officials are forecasting a soft landing.

...