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Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad moment chief content officer of the action.

Network we are heading into super wild card weekend folks and as always for every episode I've got my BFF my companion my compadre my co host professional better Simon Hunter.

Hello, Solomon hello Chad happy wild card weekend brother wild card weekend man it would surprise everybody to know that before we came on the air you and I were having a very deep discussion about whether or not Shakespeare was a malgamation of people.

If Homer was real or somebody was ghost writing him that's what we talk about on what used to be known as America's most literate gambling podcast now we're just fucking the ginseng wise guys that's right that's it that's all yeah.

We're not we're not talking to conspiracy about big footer the lizard people we're talking to Shakespeare and Homer that's right we go deep.

I have written seven books for best sellers but whatever Chad Millman wrote a book whatever we need a third grade level so we're the perfect combo.

Together we are totally average yeah it's like a buddy comedy from the 1980s so a lot of line moves a lot of news with the quarterbacks whether it be Skylar Thompson we're not getting clarity on that which we didn't have recorded the other day.

We're getting a little bit more clarity on the Mar Jackson Tyler Huntley based on who's been practicing what Jim Harboss saying we're going to break down that the Jags line has moved again since we recorded there's a lot to break down reminder we went Raven's fox hole at six and a half that line is now at eight and a half we went Simon says Jags one and a half that is now at two and a half Jags plus two and a half exact decision was bucks two and a half and remains a two and a half.

Before we get to anything I do want to ask you one question because you know we get a lot of questions in the chat now that we're doing this live on amp and we're going to get the sharp calls and and the line moves and how we're interesting stuff but in the chat people have asked how do you change the inputs for your models as we get to the playoffs because you mentioned on the show the other day that betting in the playoffs and making numbers in the playoffs is just different than it is during the regular season fewer games 10 fewer games this week then we're going to get to the top of the game.

This week then in the previous week so can you explain to people how you change your inputs.

Yeah it changes the sense that i'm not going to go as big probably with my bets in the week where it's like you have books are going to take more money in the playoffs it's just it's just much easier to get money down when you want to get money down especially where.

What is 80% of the time 75% of time at least in my career in the playoffs always almost always on the side of the book needs it's just very rare that I'm with the book but like people know this week there's a couple of public favorites I really like and that's just a historically they're profitable in the wildcard weekend so every round I change as well style like as the rounds go along i'm more likely to bet just home teams in general and dogs where it's like if it's a home dog in the next couple rounds it's.

People are going to know it's only so guarantee I can't help myself because that model is always going to benefit that where home field might not matter as much during the regular season but playoffs the day the data bears it out like that the one seeds there's a reason mathematically they make the Super Bowl the most it's like they literally play two home games and they get a by week in the first round so we had to update that all your playoff stuff just because they are rid of the buyer for the two seed so yeah for me betting.

I would say it's all about situational two we're like that Ravens number I mean if I guarantee new is going to be hunting I'd be all in on this game like I just love everything about it even love the line movement like as much as people get scared off that stuff it's something we'll talk about I love it it's just like alright more value I kind of already fact it's no more was going to play but I did think in the back of my mind all the smart people we had listened to said the more was going to back by now so that's one of those words like.

Yeah playoffs I tried to do as much like try not to go too crazy betting overboard early in the week but yeah if it's a certain game I'll bet you know it can end up being six figures no problem on a game where it's just like okay like this position like the number public keeps betting the other way and whatever it is and the line keeps moving towards what I like I'll just keep buying in on those sides but to me my biggest betting weeks will always be week one easy to get the money down all through the summer all it's just easy to get a lot of money down that and Super Bowl Super Bowl

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