The 'everything bubble' poses a bigger risk than AI, $11 billion strategist says
Full Signal
Phil Rosen
4.8 • 18 Ratings
🗓️ 5 November 2025
⏱️ 31 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Mike Green, chief strategist of the $11 billion firm Simplify Asset Management, joins Phil Rosen for the first episode of Full Signal. We discuss the biggest risks in today’s market, how passive investing is fueling an "everything bubble" and driving asset prices above their fair value, hidden economic issues, why Bitcoin isn't what you think it is, and the parallels between the AI boom and dot-com bubble.
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0:00 - Intro
0:27 - The biggest risks in markets
1:17 - Passive investing is inflating asset prices
3:34 - What's the tipping point to the passive investing bubble?
8:50 - Rising earnings are masking weakness
13:30 - AI vs. the dot-com bubble
15:03 - The role of 401(k)s in the "everything bubble"
25:46 - Bitcoin criticisms
30:35 - Conclusion
#podcast #investing #markets #macro #stocks #bitcoin #fed
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | What's up everyone? I'm very excited to announce our new show Full Signal. I'll be hosting it |
| 0:05.4 | every single week and our first episode today is with Mike Green, the chief strategist of Simplify. |
| 0:11.1 | We talk about the biggest risks in the market today, how passive investing might be creating |
| 0:16.0 | an everything bubble, and why Bitcoin is not the investment vehicle you might think it is. I hope you enjoy this |
| 0:22.0 | conversation. Mike Green, thanks for joining us today. I know you've been bearish on the economy |
| 0:30.1 | and markets for most of this year, and we just had a Fed rate cut. Stocks are at record highs. |
| 0:35.3 | Give us your lay of the land here. Well, so first of all, thank you for having me. Secondly, I think it's important to distinguish |
| 0:41.3 | between being bearish on the economy and bearish on markets, right? So one of the things that |
| 0:44.3 | I've been very clear on is that as long as flows into passive vehicles, as long as Americans |
| 0:48.3 | have retirement plans and the majority of the assets are being allocated to passive vehicles, |
| 0:53.3 | what many describe is that |
| 0:54.8 | mindless robot is effectively sucking stocks up. |
| 0:58.0 | We have price discovery in terms of where transactions have to happen. |
| 1:01.2 | It's really not telling us anything about the state of the economy or the actual behavior |
| 1:05.7 | of the individual securities as much as it's telling us about the flows that exist in the market. So I just want to |
| 1:11.4 | make sure that it's very clear that it's, you know, bearish on the economy and bearish on the stock |
| 1:15.4 | market are two very different things. Explain how potentially inflated asset prices might be |
| 1:21.7 | masking some of these risks in the economy. Well, I don't think it's just masking. I actually |
| 1:25.7 | think it's contributing to the behavior in the economy. |
| 1:28.4 | So just very quickly, you are somewhat familiar with the work that I've done around passive. |
| 1:32.8 | The idea is very straightforward. |
| 1:34.1 | How we invest actually influences the outcomes that we see. |
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