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Te's and sees apply. Welcome to this live edition of Stemos Sign today from my York Spain hot weather sunshine

all over the place here but it's not necessarily a sunny outlook for the European

economy nor for the US economy, nor for the US economy, despite a very, very strong retail report

coming out of the US, just minutes before going on air here.

So when we look at the recession playbook, I always find it very interesting to look at energy in the context of this recession

playbook because it is a very typical pattern to see energy performing in the months

prior to a recession commencing and I think we've seen that exact pattern again.

The question is just whether high energy costs will lead to a very different outcome

for the global economy compared to a year ago when we saw the exact same thing develop across energy markets.

So let's have a look at the energy demand and supply question

before we get to that recession playbook because energy is always

one of the important trigger points and one of the important catalysts to watch in the recession discussion.

Last week we had a discussion on whether the US gasoline consumption had dropped

material over the course of September and the early parts of October.

...