The Enemy of our Enemies in the Market

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Dividend Growth Investing, Monetary Policy, Investing, Retirement Planning, Wealth Management, Macro Economics, Estate Planning

4.9 • 572 Ratings

🗓️ 23 September 2022

⏱️ 25 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

The stock, bond, and housing markets are in pretty real distress right now as higher rates re-price risk assets, and general instability in monetary policy becomes the natural consequence of years of excess and irresponsibility.

And yet, everyone is already talking about it, making it a far less compelling candidate for this week’s Dividend Cafe. I have covered plenty on monetary policy this year and it will remain a primary macroeconomic focus in my shop for years to come. And as far as the general equity market distress playing out, I do think a general primer on bear markets next week will be useful (I have already begun writing it in my head).

But this week, I believe we are due for a topic that may be more dramatic than even stock market volatility, inflation, or Fed breakage. I think that through the lenses we normally think about various international affairs, particularly as it pertains to countries we consider enemies of the United States, we are missing some economic and market-sensitive ramifications that will be important to better understand.

So grab your globe but not your passport, and let’s devote this week’s Dividend Cafe to a few matters of international significance. I confess up front that it may not all cheer you up, but I can promise you this: It is not going to be the standard level of depth you are often exposed to.

Let’s dive deeper, and jump in, to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.
0:13.1	Well, hello and welcome to another Dividend Cafe. I'm recording in the middle of the day, a trading day that is, on Friday.
0:22.2	And I really have been planning all week to do a dividend cafe today on some foreign policy matters, some international
0:29.3	affairs, geopolitical dynamics. And that's what I'm going to do. I just want to briefly comment on
0:35.7	the fact that it has turned into quite a bloodbath and equity
0:39.0	markets.
0:40.0	I do think right now, unless I think it changes that I'm going to devote next Friday's
0:44.0	Dividendon Cafe to a little primer, a kind of refresher on bare markets that we certainly
0:51.5	are in right now across broad equity markets.
0:55.0	But those things come and go and those things matter and those things require some
1:00.0	behavioral refreshers and we're going to do all that.
1:03.0	But then it would just be malpractice for me to ignore the other key thematic things that I think
1:10.0	are playing out right now in the economy,
1:14.1	on the world stage, if you will.
1:16.2	And I am firmly convinced that there are some alignments taking place,
1:23.4	there are developments in matters of global geo concerns that are profoundly important to investors.
1:34.2	I can't unpack all the details of that importance today, but I want to lay the kind of
1:39.6	general framework for what we're seeing, how we're evaluating it, and where I believe the
1:46.8	directional movement is going and how that matters to investors. As a kind of just high
1:55.6	level view that I think can be done without controversy, it can be done without a particular partisan alignment.
2:02.9	It seems to me fair enough to say that the four countries that are essentially adversarial
2:11.2	to the United States and varying degrees, varying levels, varying context that matter the most are China, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.
	...

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