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Hidden Forces

The Effect of China’s Reopening on Global Growth & Inflation | Shehzad Qazi

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.81.6K Ratings

🗓️ 30 January 2023

⏱️ 44 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In Episode 295 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Shehzad Qazi, the Managing Director of China Beige Book, which provides institutional investors and corporate decision-makers with market-leading insights derived directly from their nationwide proprietary data on the Chinese economy. China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller was previously on Hidden Forces to talk about the impact of Covid-19 on China’s economy and banking system, the latter of which has been a persistent source of weakness for the country’s growth prospects. He and Demetri also discussed some of the geopolitical consequences that could potentially flow from the ongoing global disruptions caused by the pandemic and the effects on China’s highly levered real estate market.

Today’s conversation with Shehzad Qazi picks up where that conversation with Leland Miller left off. With the Chinese economy’s long-awaited reopening potentially picking up steam and the US and Europe possibly teetering on the edge of recession, the health of the Chinese economy remains the predominant demand variable driving the market’s expectations for inflation and commodity prices globally. Shehzad shares with us what he and his team are seeing in terms of growth expectations for 2023 and why markets seem to be having such a difficult time pricing the risks associated with China’s covid re-opening and its effect on the prices of key commodities such as oil, copper, and iron ore. He and Demetri also discuss the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on global supply chains and the effect of recent export controls on China’s semiconductor industry.

This is the latest in a series of episodes that we have published over the years on China’s economy, its political system, and the challenges to US-China relations. You can find other such related podcasts on this week’s episode page, where you can also access to the second part of today’s conversation by joining one of our three content tiers. This gives you access to our premium feed which you can use to listen to the second part of today’s conversation on your mobile device using your favorite podcast app.

You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe.

If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email [email protected], and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 01/24/2023

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

What's up everybody? My name is Dmitri Kaffinas and you're listening to Hidden Forces,

0:06.0

a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens to challenge consensus narratives

0:14.0

and to learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.

0:19.0

My guest in today's episode is Shazad Kasi, the managing director of China-Bajemok,

0:25.0

which operates a private, in-country data collection network,

0:29.0

developed to track the Chinese marketplace, gathering real-time economic data from thousands of firms

0:35.0

across all of China's regions, sectors and 34 discrete industries.

0:40.0

The company's CEO, Leland Miller, was my guest for an episode recorded during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring of 2020.

0:49.0

And we had a chance then to talk about the impact of the global economic shutdown on the Chinese economy,

0:55.0

as well as the implications for its banking system, which has been a persistent source of embedded weakness

1:01.0

for the country's long-term economic growth prospects.

1:04.0

We also discussed some of the geopolitical consequences that could potentially flow

1:09.0

from the ongoing global disruptions caused by the pandemic and the effect on China's highly levered real estate market.

1:17.0

Today's conversation with Shazad picks up where that episode left off,

1:21.0

but the Chinese economy's long-awaited reopening potentially picking up steam

1:25.0

as the US and Europe possibly teeter on the edge of recession.

1:29.0

The health of the Chinese economy remains the predominant demand variable,

1:33.0

driving the market's expectations for inflation and commodity prices globally.

1:39.0

I asked Shazad to share with us what he and his team are seeing in terms of growth expectations for 2023,

1:45.0

and why markets seem to be having such a difficult time pricing the risks associated with China's COVID reopening

1:52.0

and its effects on the prices of key commodities.

1:55.0

We also discussed the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on global supply chains

...

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