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Hello and welcome to The Edition. I'm Lara Prendergast.

Each week, we look at some of the most important and intriguing pieces in the magazine with the writers behind them.

This week, we'll look at the explosive paper that's guiding the government's response to coronavirus, as revealed by the spectator.

I'll also speak to Lionel Shriver, who says she's reluctantly voted for

Joe Biden in this year's presidential election. And to finish, I'll find out whether coronavirus

spells the end for the big screen. First up, the constantly tightening social restrictions can

sometimes seem nonsensical, to say the least,

with the government rarely revealing the basis upon which it makes its decisions.

But in this week's cover piece, Fraser Nelson publishes the details of Sage's reasonable worst-case scenario plan,

which is now guiding decision-making.

Fraser joins me now, along with Carl Hennigan, a professor in evidence-based medicine

at the University of Oxford. Fraser, in your cover piece this week, you reveal the details of a

sage document modelling the worst-case scenario for COVID-19 this winter. Can you explain what it shows

and why you've put it on the cover of the magazine this week. What we're publishing is what's called the reasonable worst case scenario.

Now, this is a hugely important document in UK pandemic planning because this is the scenario

that other government departments are supposed to plan around, not plan around what they

think is realistically going to happen, but plan around a worst case. This is what's happened in

swine flu. And the important thing is that when we're trying to find out why the government's doing

what it's doing, why are they moving to these tier restrictions, we need to know the scenario they've got

...