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The Brian Lehrer Show

The Economy, the Stock Market and the Chances of Recession

The Brian Lehrer Show

WNYC

Politics, News, News Commentary, Wnyc, Radio, Npr, Arts, New, Lerer, Media, Bryan, Nyc, Daily News, York, Public

4.61.5K Ratings

🗓️ 6 August 2024

⏱️ 23 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Justin Wolfers talks about the stock market sell-off, the latest jobs report and how to gauge the health of the economy.

Transcript

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0:00.0

It's the Brian Lairn Show.

0:11.9

I'm Kusha Navadar, keeping the seat warm for Brian while he's on vacation.

0:15.8

Thanks for joining us this morning.

0:17.7

Let's check in on the state of the economy because there have been a number of

0:22.2

indicators over the past week that have been a cause for concern. Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve

0:27.8

voted to keep interest rates at their current rates. They're the highest they've been in over two

0:32.3

decades. Then on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a weaker jobs report than what many expected

0:38.4

with fewer new jobs created and an increasing unemployment rate than what a lot of folks expected.

0:45.0

Things didn't get better Monday, which was yesterday when we saw a big sell-off in the stock market.

0:49.8

So it came to the point where some of the biggest online brokerages reported outages of their trading platforms because so many people were trying to log in and check on things.

1:00.0

And maybe some of us listening were among those people trying to log in.

1:04.2

And we can see the choppy waters beyond our shores.

1:07.4

In Japan, the Niki Index, which is an index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange,

1:12.3

dropped 12 percent was its worst performing day since 1987, although it has since rebounded

1:18.7

over the past day. And stocks in the U.S. have stayed steady so far today as well. But, you know,

1:24.3

it's suffice it to say, it's been a week and it's only Tuesday.

1:36.6

So as we take stock of everything, if you'll excuse the pun, we're left asking if these causes for concern are serious causes for concern.

1:40.4

Are all these indicators a collective harbinger for a recession?

1:45.7

Or is this just turbulence on the way to what the Fed hopes is a soft landing on their road to economic recovery that's been unfolding since basically 2020?

1:49.9

Here to help us sort through all the data is Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics

1:55.2

and Public Policy at the University of Michigan.

1:58.1

Justin also co-hosts the Think Like an Economist podcast. Professor, welcome to the show.

...

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