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The Ezra Klein Show

The Economy Is at a Hinge Moment

The Ezra Klein Show

New York Times Opinion

Society & Culture, Government, News

4.611K Ratings

🗓️ 4 October 2024

⏱️ 90 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The economy has hit a hinge moment. For the past few years, inflation has been the big economic story — the fixation of economic policymakers, journalists and almost everyone who goes to the grocery store. But economists now largely see inflation as tamed. It’s still a major political issue; the country continues to reel from years of rising prices, and there is a real affordability crisis. But that isn’t all the next administration will have to deal with. So what does it mean to fight the next economic war rather than the last one? Jason Furman is an economics professor at Harvard and a former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Barack Obama. Furman has closely tracked the inflation crisis over the past few years, and he’s deeply knowledgeable about how economic policy is made. In this conversation, we discuss why the inflation crisis upended the expectations of so many economists and what we’ve learned for the next time inflation strikes, what he expects to see with mortgage rates and the housing market, the upcoming fight over Donald Trump’s expiring tax cuts, the good and the bad in Kamala Harris’s housing policy and why there seems to be so little concern from either party about the ever-growing U.S. debt. Mentioned: “The Economic Theory Behind JD Vance’s Populism” with Oren Cass on The Ezra Klein Show “Trump’s Most Misunderstood Policy Proposal” by Oren Cass “In Defense of the Dismal Science” by Jason Furman Book Recommendations: How the World Became Rich by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin The Goodness Paradox by Richard Wrangham The Ladies’ Paradise by Émile Zola Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected]. You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs. This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, with Kate Sinclair. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Isaac Jones, Efim Shapiro and Aman Sahota. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Annie Galvin, Elias Isquith and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. Special thanks to Tyler Cowen, Veronique de Rugy, Desmond Lachman, Lindsay Owens, Nathan Tankus, Isabella Weber and Sonia Herrero.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Before we start the episode today, I wanted to give another quick announcement about the

0:04.9

coming New York Times audio paywall. This will not be the last of these you're going to hear.

0:09.0

I dropped a small episode down the feed a few days ago. It was called about the coming

0:13.4

paywall, all the details are there. But in case you missed it, in the next couple of

0:17.2

weeks the archives of the show are going to become a subscriber only. This will

0:20.8

happen for all New York Times audio shows. The most recent

0:23.8

episodes will still be free but to access any older episodes you're going to

0:27.9

need a time subscription. For more details on how all that will work, why it's

0:32.2

happening, why I actually why it's happening,

0:33.0

why I actually think it's a good idea

0:34.4

and want to persuade you that it is too.

0:36.4

You can see that episode from a few days ago

0:38.1

about the coming paywall.

0:40.0

And now to today's episode. From New York Times opinion,

0:46.7

this is the Ezra Klein Show. We are at a hinge moment in the economy. For the past few years, there has been one problem on economic

1:11.6

policy makers' minds, one problem

1:13.2

obsessing the Fed, obsessing the Biden administration,

1:16.1

assessing everybody, inflation.

1:18.9

But in mid-September, the Federal Reserve

1:21.2

officially called an end to that era when it cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

1:26.0

Inflation it was saying is no longer the problem.

1:29.0

It's come down from around 9% to around 2.5%, but now unemployment is creeping up again.

...

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