From the opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal.

This is Free Expression with Jerry Baker.

Hello and welcome to Free Expression from the opinion page of the Wall Street Journal.

I'm Jerry Baker, editor at large of the journal.

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This week, the economy's stupid.

Well, the state of the economy usually dominates the Conservants of voters in an election year,

and it typically drives the decisions of swing voters in particular,

as James Carville's famous campaign slogan put it three decades ago.

And once again this year,

Americans say it is the biggest issue for them as they prepared a vote in next month's election.

So what is the state of the US economy right now? Three weeks before Election Day. Kamala Harris

and Joe Biden insist that things are just great. Growth continues, jobs are plentiful and unemployment is low.

Most Americans don't buy this. A Gallup poll last month found that voters' perceptions at the state of

the economy are more negative than they've been in any presidential election since 2008,

when we're in the midst of the global financial crisis. Now, the rate of inflation is falling,

prices are still climbing and remain

more than 20% higher than they were when Donald Trump left office four years ago. Wages have risen,

but there's been no significant increase in real disposable incomes. So what is the real state of

the economy right now and where is it headed? What would a Trump or Harris presidency mean for the economic outlook in the next few years? I'm pleased to say this week that with me to discuss this is one of the country's most astute economists. Jason Thomas is the head of global research at the Carlisle Group. Before joining Carlisle, the Private Equity Group, he worked in the George W. Bush administration and the White House, in fact, with primary responsibility for public finance policy at the National Economic Council. He's written and published widely on the US and global economy and markets, and including, I'm glad to say, of course, for the Wall Street Journal opinion page. And he joins me now. Jason, thanks very much for joining Free Expression.

Thank you for having me. Well, let's start, as I said in my introduction, with the current state of the economy. It is a bit of a conundrum, at least in terms of the politics or the perceptions of it. The economy has enjoyed reasonably good growth for several years now since the pandemic. Unemployment remains very low by sort of long-term historical standards. We had another good employment report for September, which we just had.

Inflation is coming down significantly. very low by sort of long-term historical standards. We had another good employment report for

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