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Best of the Spectator

The economics of magic money: how real is the stock market surge?

Best of the Spectator

The Spectator

News Commentary, News, Daily News, Society & Culture

4.4785 Ratings

🗓️ 15 September 2020

⏱️ 31 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Has the government found the magic money tree? It certainly seems like it when the furlough scheme and various other Covid measures have taken government debt to above £2 trillion. The crazy amount of spending has been kept afloat by quantitative easing, the Bank of England’s policy of choice since the financial crisis. Some have called this ‘money-printing’ and warned of a reckoning, yet none has come. So what does this new financial environment mean for investors, savers, and the less well off? Fraser Nelson talks to a panel of special guests in this podcast, sponsored by Charles Stanley.

With Harriett Baldwin, Conservative MP who sits on the Treasury Select Committee; David Miles, an economist at Imperial College London, formerly a member of the Monetary Policy Committee; and Paul Abberley, CEO of Charles Stanley.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello and welcome to a special Spectator podcast, sponsored by the wealth management firm Charles Stanley.

0:14.7

So has the government found a magic money tree? It might seem that way when the furlough scheme

0:20.4

and various other

0:21.2

COVID bailout measures have taken government debt to more than two trillion pounds.

0:26.4

But the markets don't seem able to work out whether this is the time to be bold or to be cautious.

0:32.4

The stock market has improved incredibly since its post-lockdown low.

0:36.6

So what should investors do? Where are we economically?

0:41.9

Is this really the time to get back into the market or the time to get out while the going is still

0:47.8

relatively good? And what does this new economic and financial environment mean for investors,

0:53.3

savers and the less well-off.

0:56.1

I'm Fraser Nelson, and to discuss this question, I'm joined by David Miles, who's an economist at Imperial

1:00.9

College London, also a formerly a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee.

1:06.7

I'm joined by Harriet Baldwin, a Conservative MP currently on the Treasury Select Committee,

1:11.3

and by Paul Aberley, who's chief executive of Charles Stanley.

1:15.6

So, Paul, let's start with you.

1:17.5

Isn't this the sort of the time where investors should just be keeping their money under the mattress

1:22.7

and not really investing it?

1:24.0

Because let's face it, there is no way of telling whether the stock market is about

1:29.1

to collapse once again. Well, I would say no because I think the social contract remains in place,

1:34.6

and this goes back to the financial crisis where the authorities reduce interest rates on

1:39.5

cash and bonds to zero, encouraging people to buy equities, which of course would stimulate the economy

1:45.4

and improve those equity returns. But the other side of the social contract was it was

...

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