4.6 • 11K Ratings
🗓️ 7 June 2024
⏱️ 92 minutes
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0:00.0 | From New York Times opinion, this is the Ezra Klein Show. I've been thinking about this episode for a bit so I'm going to spend a couple of |
0:27.5 | minutes here setting it up. Back in September the economists put out this interesting model that pulled in a bunch of different bits of economic data, so things like the unemployment rate, inflation, gas prices, the S&P 500. And they used all that to |
0:46.5 | predict how people would feel about the economy. And they show that from 1980 to |
0:50.8 | 2019, all these bits of data, they do predict how people feel about the economy. |
0:56.8 | And then the pandemic hits and the model completely falls apart. By late 2023, the model's looking at low unemployment, it's looking at falling inflation, |
1:10.0 | it's looking at a great stock market, and it predicts consumer sentiment is going to be 98 out of 100 98 out of 100 that is Joe Biden gets his face on a coin territory |
1:21.5 | Here in reality the actual consumer sentiment was 69. That is |
1:26.0 | Joe Biden might lose re-election territory. |
1:37.6 | There's been this debate for a year or two now about whether the economy is good or it is bad. And the language of that, the binaryness bothers me. |
1:41.1 | It's like asking if the 19th century was good or bad. I mean good or bad for whom compared to what? |
1:46.7 | The economy is like this vast multi-dimensional hyper object. It's a little too big for good or bad. I think we need to be more precise. |
1:57.0 | This debate is not about whether the economy is good or bad. The debate is about our |
2:01.0 | expectations. |
2:07.4 | Given what we've seen before, we would expect, we did expect, people to be happier with the economy than they are right now, |
2:10.1 | a lot happier. |
2:12.4 | One way you can try to reconcile that is you could say the public is |
2:16.4 | misinformed or misled. There's this Guardian Harris poll that came out a few weeks |
2:21.6 | ago. It found 56% of Americans, 56, think we're in a |
2:26.2 | recession, 49% think the S&P 500 is down this year, and 49% think that unemployment is at a 50 year high. For the record, we are not in a |
2:37.3 | recession. The S&B 500 is at a record high and unemployment is at 3.9%, which is extremely low. So factually people are |
2:47.2 | wrong about the economy, but it gets weirder than that because when you ask |
2:51.6 | people how they're doing, they say they're doing pretty well. |
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