There is a concept, very famous, called The Fog of War. It comes from the German

Carl von Klausfitz's book on the Napoleonic Wars about 200 years ago. And it refers to this

idea that during a military conflict, each side has to make decisions with imperfect and constantly changing and often downright completely wrong information.

Now, one might think that 200 years later, 200 years after the Napoleonic Wars with the internet and with computers and with analytics and with cameras in our pockets and with cameras all over the

world, the fog of war might have lifted a bit. You would be wrong. And to see just how wrong

that idea is, to take one very small and tangible example, look at the price of oil in the

midst of the Iran war. This conflict has reportedly all but shut down

the Strait of Hormuz and caused the largest shock to global oil and natural gas supplies in many

decades. Kuwait has cut production, so has Iraq. Qatar has declared force majeure on liquid

natural gas exports. And in the last two trading days, crude oil

prices first rose faster than any time in modern history and then fell by more faster than any

time in modern history, rising essentially from about 70 to 110 in a day and a half, and then falling

back down into the 80s.

Prices are still significantly higher than they were the day before these bombing started,

and it's not just the price of oil that concerns economists.

This narrow body of water is critical for the passage of fertilizer materials and chip parts.

Nobody knows where this war will be in five hours,

much less five weeks. But I wanted to have a conversation about what this tiny little body of

water, the Strait of Hormuz, why it has served as essentially a choke point on the global

economy.

Today's guest is Rachel Zyemba.

She is an analyst on geopolitics, risk, and energy markets at Zemba Insights,

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