The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - June 26, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 26 June 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Mid-Year Market Update and Economic Insights: Dividend Cafe for June 26th
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Wednesday, June 26th, Brian provides a mid-year update on the financial markets, highlighting the positive yet quiet trading day and the overall decent performance of the S&P 500 for the year's first half. Key points include a detailed analysis of new home sales, which showed significant declines, and a discussion on sector rotation with energy, industrials, and healthcare showing improved prospects. Additionally, Brian addresses questions on electric vehicle exposure, explaining why certain names like Tesla are not currently compelling for TBG. The episode concludes with an update on the broader exposures in lithium production through large integrated oil companies.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:49 Economic Indicators and Housing Market 01:31 Sector Rotation and Market Support 02:05 Electric Vehicle Market Analysis 03:12 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.4 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. It is Wednesday, June 26th. And good to be with you here today. A quiet day in trading all around, really. It was generally |
| 0:22.0 | positive, at least in stocks, but mixed and bonds sold off a little bit. The tenure was up roughly |
| 0:28.6 | seven basis points or so on the day. But quiet day overall, we're now at the midpoint, |
| 0:33.9 | essentially, I guess at the end of the week through 2024, this is about the 13th best first |
| 0:40.0 | half of the year since 1950. So it's a decent start to the year. I'm talking about the S&P here, |
| 0:45.4 | not the Dow. And when you put the top first 20 first halves of the year together and compare them |
| 0:51.7 | generally on average at least, they're up about seven or so percent for the |
| 0:55.3 | remainder of the year that's not anything predictive necessarily but it's food for thought as we |
| 1:00.3 | get into the second half new home sales on the economic front we're down 11 percent 11.3 |
| 1:05.7 | for the month and are now down 16 and a half percent year over year we posted 619 on an annual rate on new homes. We were |
| 1:14.7 | expecting 640. So it's quite a big disappointment on some real estate numbers. And it was driven |
| 1:19.4 | interestingly by a lot of the Northeast sales were down over 40%. So inventory overall nationwide is up |
| 1:27.2 | 14% just in the last month. So what we're seeing is still |
| 1:30.3 | a very stuck housing market. Obviously yesterday I reported on prices hanging in there just fine. In fact, |
| 1:36.1 | they're still up and at all-time highs. But there's some of these sort of cracks beginning to |
| 1:41.7 | show inside of housing with higher interest rates. I talked a little bit |
| 1:44.9 | about the market from a sector rotation point of view. And basically some things like energy, |
| 1:50.6 | rates, industrials, materials, even health care have started to look better the last month or so. |
| 1:56.2 | And frankly, are poised to have a bigger upside or tailwind, at least in revenue in the second |
| 2:02.2 | half of the year. And I would suspect that is what may support markets more as far as a |
| 2:07.8 | broadening perspective versus some of the momentum names, really technology that drove the first |
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