The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - August 7, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 7 August 2024
⏱️ 7 minutes
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Summary
Market Volatility and Economic Indicators Update - August 7th
In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the market's downward trend following a previous day's uptick, with the VIX closing at 28. He provides an analysis of key indices, including the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ, and gives insights into the bond market, highlighting the yield curve and credit spreads. Additionally, Seitel touches on the impacts of election cycles on market volatility, shares his views on option income strategies, and discusses recent consumer credit and trade deficit data. The episode emphasizes the importance of understanding market swings and maintaining a balanced investment approach.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:45 Market Volatility and Historical Context
01:41 Bond Market Movements
02:18 Credit Spreads and Market Health
02:50 Election Impact on Volatility
03:39 Option Strategies and Portfolio Management
04:20 Consumer Credit and Trade Deficit
04:39 Conclusion and Sign Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.7 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Wednesday, August the 7th, and Brian Saitel with you here today on a down day in markets after yesterday's move higher. |
| 0:23.1 | So we failed to continue on with so momentum, although yesterday's advanced decline ratio at 2.6 to 1 didn't have a whole lot of conviction to it, frankly, that we were out of the weeds completely. |
| 0:33.6 | And the VIX closed today at 28. So high 20s on the volatility index means that we still have some more ups and downs here as we work through things in markets. The Dow closed down 234 points on the day. The S&P was down about 0.77%. The NASDAQ closed a little lower than 1% on the day. The tenure closed at 396, which was up five basis points |
| 0:56.8 | on the day. Look, as an equity investor, you're taking on a higher level of volatility and risk |
| 1:02.3 | for the higher rate of return that you're getting, call it double digits over time. |
| 1:06.4 | And so some of this stuff is really part for the course. On average, the market drawdown |
| 1:10.7 | over 50 years has been about 15% a year, part for the course. On average, the market drawdown over 50 years has |
| 1:12.8 | been about 15% a year, about 14.7. So that's on average every year. We're supposed to have |
| 1:18.8 | this mid-year drawdown of something around there. We're supposed to have around 5% pullbacks |
| 1:23.8 | about three different times a year. So I think some of these years, we've gotten a little |
| 1:28.0 | desensitized to some of this, but this is actually normal. Monday's move put us down about 8% on the |
| 1:33.8 | S&P. We're down about 14% at the low on Monday on the NASDAQ. So in line, and frankly, I assume more |
| 1:40.5 | to come. And as a dividend investor, I'm not sure that's necessarily a terrible thing |
| 1:44.5 | because there's dividends being earned. And as cash flows get credited to the account to get |
| 1:49.2 | reinvested at lower share prices and you get a positive compounding effect over time, |
| 1:54.4 | the bond market move has actually been probably more dramatic, at least in my view, |
| 1:58.3 | the rally from on both twos and tens to 360s, |
| 2:03.0 | 367 or so, back up to now 4%. It's quite a round trip. The yield curve, by the way, |
| 2:09.0 | it closed today, inverted by the least at just three basis points, frankly, than I can |
| 2:14.5 | remember at this point over a year at least since it's been basically |
| 2:18.3 | completely flat. The difference between two year, five year, seven year, ten year, and 30 year treasuries |
... |
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