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The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - May 21, 2024

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Dividend Growth Investing, Monetary Policy, Investing, Retirement Planning, Estate Planning, Business, Macro Economics, Wealth Management

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 21 May 2024

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a weekly market commentary with a focus on dividends and economic insights. On May 21, the markets saw a slight increase despite the lack of major economic news, with the Dow up by 66 points and both NASDAQ and S&P 500 up by about a quarter of a point. Interest rates were slightly down, with the 10-year treasury dropping three basis points. Fed officials, including Waller, shared diverse views on the economy, generally indicating a cautious approach towards changing interest rates. The episode also discusses the current low market volatility, compares GDP in aggregate versus per capita with Japan as a case study, and looks ahead to the FOMC meeting minutes and existing home sales reports. Lastly, it emphasizes the importance of not becoming complacent due to current positive market conditions.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview: A Quiet Summer Day 00:45 Federal Reserve Speakers and Interest Rate Insights 01:22 Market Volatility and Economic Indicators 02:39 GDP Insights and Global Economic Trends 03:21 Looking Ahead: FOMC Meeting and Home Sales 03:34 Closing Remarks and Compliance Information

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:13.4

Welcome to Dividend Cafe this Tuesday. It's May the 21st. And another, what feels like just a kind of a summer quiet period in markets right now,

0:23.8

the market was not a lot of economic news out on the day. Markets ended up closing a little higher on

0:29.3

the day. The Dow was up 66 points. Nasdaq and S&P were both up about a quarter of a point.

0:35.3

Rates fell just slightly. Ten year was down three bases points to 441. So not a lot of a point. Rates fell just slightly, 10-year was down three basis points to

0:38.8

441. So not a lot of news out in the economic calendar and just sort of a quiet summer day.

0:44.0

We had a good amount of different Fed speakers, though, with different comments and different

0:47.8

speeches throughout the country. The most notable for the day, at least, was Waller.

0:52.3

And he was more doveish than some of the others, generally, citing that April was pretty good

0:56.5

as far as what we saw with inflation coming down and being a little better than expected,

1:01.0

but still cited several more months being needed before they're actually going to ease.

1:05.4

And both, you know, Bostick, Barr and Mester, all those Fed officials basically were in the

1:10.1

higher for longer camp on interest

1:11.6

rates.

1:12.4

Again, Fed futures are still that sort of 60% chance for September as our starting point to

1:18.4

when rates move lower.

1:20.0

As noted, the volatility of the market has come down.

1:22.8

The VIX is now in the low 12s.

1:25.2

It's back basically to right where it was in 2019 as we headed into the

1:29.7

holidays before the pandemic. And markets were doing well then, but it was a quite period of time.

1:36.5

It's not the lowest it's ever been. You know, 2017 comes to my mind as is a period of time

1:41.4

when volatility was lower. But I just noticed that, you know,

...

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