The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - July 30, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 30 July 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
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Summary
Market Rotation and Economic Updates - July 30, 2019
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel analyzes the mixed market performance on July 30, 2019, highlighting the Dow's rise by 203 points, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ saw declines. Seitel discusses market rotation, noting the narrowing performance gap between different market segments and comparing the current situation to the year 2000. He also provides updates on economic indicators, such as consumer confidence and job openings, and anticipates the outcomes of upcoming ADP payroll numbers and the FOMC meeting, where expectations for a September rate cut are high.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:21 Market Rotation and Performance Analysis
01:59 Economic Indicators and Consumer Confidence
02:49 Upcoming Economic Events and Expectations
03:21 Conclusion and Sign-Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.8 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. It is Tuesday, July the 30th. And Brian Saitel with you here today from our Newport Beach office. |
| 0:21.1 | And on a bit of a mixed day actually actually, in markets, the Dow actually closed more or less at the |
| 0:25.9 | high, is pretty close to it on the day. Dow closed up 203 points. The S&P was down half a percent, |
| 0:32.0 | and the NASDAQ was down almost 1.3% on the day. So again, that delta between different parts of the market and the |
| 0:40.2 | broadening out of what's performing this year, it continues to shrink as some of that rotation |
| 0:45.3 | continues underway. Today was another 100 basis point difference between an equal weight and a |
| 0:50.8 | cap weighted index as an example. We've written about this, and I have before, |
| 0:56.3 | but we've compared some of the similarities between now and the top heaviness and markets and |
| 1:01.5 | where valuations are, and frankly, technology being the weight that it is of about a third, |
| 1:06.4 | a little less now as it comes down in the S&P 500, similar to the year 2000. And this was maybe three weeks ago. |
| 1:13.8 | I wrote about just the shockingly low number of average stocks that make up the other |
| 1:18.7 | 493 names inside of the S&P 500. There was only about 20% of them that year to date were |
| 1:24.9 | actually outperforming the index itself because again of where that |
| 1:29.0 | performance attribution was coming from right on the top level and since then over the past |
| 1:34.4 | basically 2021 days the last three weeks it's gone now to 70 percent so the rotation has been |
| 1:40.9 | ongoing for several weeks it's been pretty. And I know we've written about it |
| 1:44.8 | already, but that delta, I think, is pretty substantial in coincident. I'm sorry, not coincidentally, |
| 1:50.7 | the last time that you had a 70% sort of average stock in the SMP 500 outperforming the index |
| 1:58.2 | itself was right after 2000 and 2001 as that rotation got underway. |
| 2:04.5 | History doesn't always repeat exactly, but as they say, it often rhymes. And so that's what we're |
| 2:09.0 | seeing more of now. In the economic calendar, it was quiet today. There was a couple of small |
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