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The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - August 20, 2024

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Monetary Policy, Investing, Wealth Management, Business, Retirement Planning, Macro Economics, Dividend Growth Investing, Estate Planning

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 20 August 2024

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Market Insights Amidst a Quiet Day: Economic Data and Upcoming Events

In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel reviews the quiet market day, noting the slight downturn after an 8-day positive streak for both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. He discusses the 10-year yield drop and increased volatility indicated by the VIX. Seitel also highlights upcoming key economic events, including jobless claims and the FOMC minutes, as well as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's anticipated speech at Jackson Hole. The episode provides a general overview of the current economy, touching on unemployment, GDP estimates, corporate earnings growth, and a positive 35-page economic report from Apollo, while advising on the importance of economic data in market movements and portfolio design.

00:00 Introduction and Market Overview

00:57 Economic Indicators and Employment

01:19 Corporate Earnings and Economic Activity

02:14 Market Valuation and Investment Strategy

03:08 Upcoming Economic Events

03:19 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.5

Welcome to the Dividendin Cafe. It is Tuesday, August the 20th. Brian Sightel with you here today in an otherwise fairly quiet day in markets overall. We gave a little bit back here,

0:23.4

but we also had eight days in a row with both the S&P and the NASDAQ positive. So there you have it.

0:29.2

The 10-year yield was down four or five basis points. We closed at 382, and that's sort of normal correlation between stocks as bonds.

0:37.0

And stocks and bonds continues with bond yields a little lower as stocks sell off here a little bit.

0:41.7

But with that, there's a quiet day in the economic calendar today. We did pick up a little bit on the VIX.

0:46.7

So volatility was a little higher. Tomorrow we've got jobless claims. We've got the FOMC minutes out.

0:53.1

And then Friday we'll have Powell speaking at Jackson

0:56.2

Hull and giving his press conference, which is really the largest piece of economic news on the week.

1:01.9

So what I did is just went through the economy generally given the quiet day that it was. So we have

1:06.4

unemployment now at 4.3. That's up from 3 and a half. So, you know, up 80 basis points, which is meaningful.

1:12.5

But just keep in mind, 4.3% is still considered full employment in this country. So employment

1:17.7

continues to be strong, albeit a little cooler. We've got GDP estimates in the 2 to 2.4% range.

1:24.2

So still, you know, positive and not recessionary. Earnings growth, which has just come out, closed around 12% higher, 12.4% with revenue growth

1:33.0

at 5. So positive things on corporate profits and corporate earnings. And then along with that,

1:39.1

just general barometer of overall economic activity, there was a 35-page chartbook from Apollo going through

1:45.2

everything from things like New York City Broadway show tickets to air travel, traffic,

1:50.7

national income tax receipts, things like credit card spending or the consumer spending like

1:55.7

they were, and then just low bankruptcy rates and low charge-offs on debt, there's 30 pages of this stuff.

2:01.7

And almost every single metric is showing that the economy is a pretty strong overall.

2:06.4

It doesn't mean it's perfect, and it doesn't mean that there's not cracks in the dam or anything,

2:10.1

but I think it's positive.

...

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