The Dividend Cafe Thursday - September 26, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 26 September 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Market Recap and China's Economic Stimulus
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida on a generally positive market day. He discusses recent stimuli enacted by the People's Bank of China to spur economic growth, including lowering mortgage and deposit rates. China faces deflation with PPI at -1.8% and significant real estate declines. Despite market weaknesses, global GDP remains relatively stable at 3%. U.S. jobless claims slightly beat expectations, third-quarter GDP remains unchanged at 3%, and durable goods orders exceeded expectations. Chinese stock performance and its impact on U.S. markets are also examined.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:24 China's Economic Stimulus and Its Impact
00:43 Detailed Analysis of China's Economic Indicators
01:46 Global Market Reactions and Future Outlook
02:22 US Economic Data and Market Performance
02:57 Closing Remarks and Upcoming Events
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.7 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. It is Thursday, September the 26th. And Brian Sightell with you here again in our West Palm Beach, Florida office. |
| 0:22.2 | And a generally positive day in markets overall, we had some weakness yesterday, but we had |
| 0:27.6 | some recovery today. And NASDAQ closed at a gain for the fourth day in a row. We had |
| 0:33.7 | written about this, or I did last week. I know David wrote about it Tuesday, but there was stimulus enacted in China pretty much across |
| 0:40.5 | the board from the PBOC. |
| 0:42.9 | And so I unpacked that a little bit today in the dividend cafe. |
| 0:46.2 | I wanted to go over with readers some of the, you know, some of the reasons as to why they're |
| 0:50.5 | doing these things, lowering mortgage rates and lowering deposit rates and these |
| 0:54.7 | types of things to spur the economy. You've had CPI in China coming year over year, a point six |
| 1:00.1 | percent in August. You had PPI at deflating, which is negative 1.8 percent year over year in August. |
| 1:06.7 | Economic growth has slowed. Freight rates are down from Shanghai to New York by 20%, which is |
| 1:11.9 | pretty stunning, really. Real estate year over a year is down 23%. And that's kind of the gorilla in |
| 1:18.3 | the room. This is the big deflating real estate market that was invested in from the government to |
| 1:25.5 | build infrastructure and to build these cities and railways and bridges |
| 1:29.3 | and all these apartment buildings and office towers and all these things. |
| 1:33.3 | And they've had a transition into more of a consumer-led economy. |
| 1:37.3 | And this is why you've seen some of these weak numbers. |
| 1:39.3 | But the silver line that do a lot of these things are that this is essentially known. |
| 1:43.3 | This is a lot of this is priced in. |
| 1:45.1 | The markets in China are lower by 30% just from 2021. |
| 1:50.5 | They were lower by half, frankly, before this recent recovery. |
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