The Dividend Cafe Thursday - September 12, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 12 September 2024
⏱️ 5 minutes
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Summary
Market Gains and Disinflationary Signs on Dividend Cafe
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the positive movements in the markets on September 12th, with the Dow gaining 235 points, the S&P rising for the fourth straight day, and minor gains in the NASDAQ and 10-year Treasury note. The focus is on the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data showing a disinflationary trend with a year-over-year number under 2%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's shift from inflation to employment and economic growth concerns. Revised July PPI figures indicate deflation. Initial jobless claims align with expectations, supporting the 'soft landing' economic narrative.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:37 Inflation Data Insights 01:23 Federal Reserve and Bond Market Dynamics 02:24 Revised PPI Numbers and Jobless Claims 03:05 Conclusion and Sign-Off
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.3 | Welcome to Dividend Cafe. This is Thursday, September the 12th. Brian Saitel with you here today on what was generally a fairly positive day overall in markets. |
| 0:23.7 | The Dow was up 235 points, actually opened with a little bit of weakness early in the morning. |
| 0:29.7 | By about 10 o'clock or so mid-morning, we started to rally a little bit and then just built on some gains. |
| 0:34.9 | It ended up closing a nice positive 235 on the day. |
| 0:38.6 | This is the fourth straight day, actually, for the S&P as well. It was up about three quarters of a percent. |
| 0:44.0 | NASDAQ was up a point on the day. The 10-year was up two basis points at 368. |
| 0:49.1 | So overall, fairly good. And the news really was we had PPI data. This is the producer price index, |
| 0:55.5 | inflation data that comes out on wholesale side, basically exactly the same as what CPI came out |
| 1:01.1 | as to yesterday. So we had a 0.2% month over month number on PPI for headline, and then we had a |
| 1:07.4 | 0.3 for core. So basically food and energy because it has come down pretty much across the board |
| 1:14.8 | relative to some other goods in the baskets that they measure in these data points like |
| 1:19.3 | PPI and CPI. |
| 1:20.7 | When you strip it out in the core numbers, that's why those monthly numbers are just a little bit higher. |
| 1:25.4 | But all that to say, the year-over-year number on PPI is now |
| 1:28.8 | under 2%. It's 1.7. So below where the Fed wanted to see. So these things are good. All of this |
| 1:36.6 | stuff is speaking to a pretty consistent disinflationary narrative. And that's why the Fed is |
| 1:42.0 | pivoted from talking about inflation, which they're pretty |
| 1:44.7 | convinced is moving in the right direction to things like employment and growth in the economy. |
| 1:49.5 | I was on Yahoo Finance this morning talking about this, but there's only about a 15% chance |
| 1:54.1 | of a 50 basis point rate cut in the Fed futures, but the two-year bond is already 175 basis |
| 2:00.6 | points below where Fed funds is. So the bond market |
... |
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