The Dividend Cafe Thursday - October 17, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 17 October 2024
⏱️ 7 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel delivers a market and economic update for October 17th. The Dow showed a positive gain of 161 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq remained flat. Interest rates saw a slight increase, with the 10-year Treasury note rising 7 basis points to 4.09%. Brian reviewed the latest economic news, including initial jobless claims at 241,000—below expectations, positive retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index showing improvement. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, citing slow, yet non-recessionary growth. Inflation in Europe has fallen to 1.8%, while unemployment stands at a historically low 6.4%. Brian also discussed the Phillips Curve's relevance and addressed a reader's question on credit card fees and their impact on inflation. He wrapped up with a reminder about forthcoming housing market data and the Long Form Dividend Cafe report.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
00:43 Economic Data and Job Market Insights
01:25 Retail Sales and Manufacturing Updates
01:55 European Economic Conditions
02:25 Inflation and Unemployment Analysis
03:40 Credit Card Debt and Inflation
04:48 Conclusion and Upcoming Reports
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.8 | Welcome to Dividendin Cafe. This is Thursday, October 17th. Brian Saitel with you from our Newport Beach office. A bit of a mixed day in market. It's mostly |
| 0:22.5 | positive. The Dow is up 161 points on the day. S&P actually closed basically completely flat. |
| 0:29.7 | It was up one point. And then the NASDAQ was also basically flat, up six points on the day. |
| 0:36.2 | So two flat indices and one meaningfully or reasonably, |
| 0:40.8 | I would say, positive on the Dow with 161 points. Interest rates have started to move a little higher. |
| 0:46.1 | Some of the economic data and jobs data has been a little bit better. And so you've got a little bit |
| 0:50.7 | upward momentum with some interest rates. Ten year was up seven basis |
| 0:54.3 | points on the day. We closed a 4.09%. Economic news out today. We had initial jobless claims came in at |
| 1:02.1 | 241 for the month. Forgive me for the week. We were expecting 260,000 on there. And anything in that |
| 1:10.2 | mid-200,000 range is on the Fed's radar. That would be at a point where the employment market would likely start to weaken a little bit, meaning unemployment would go up. The only thing I'll say here is just remember that both Helene and Milton were in the middle of the last two weeks. And so some of these numbers that popped up from, say, low, 200s to |
| 1:27.8 | 250s probably had something to do with that. Those are pretty big storms. But we'll let a couple |
| 1:33.4 | weeks go by before we make any final judgment on the employment picture so far. It's fine. |
| 1:38.4 | We had U.S. retail sales a little better than expected. Positive consumer numbers here. We got a 0.4% number versus a 0.3% |
| 1:46.1 | expected. It's a little bit of good news there. And then we had the fully fed manufacturing |
| 1:50.7 | index. Meaningfully, it was actually the mirror image of what we got on Tuesday from the New York |
| 1:55.3 | Empire State Manufacturing Index. This one was meaningfully better. New York was meaningfully |
| 2:00.7 | worse. We got a 10 handle on this |
| 2:03.2 | one versus a three. So some mixedness inside of the manufacturing, not that uncommon. Some of the |
| 2:09.3 | info I wrote today was across the pond. It was about Europe. And they decreased rates today, |
| 2:14.0 | 25 basis points. They're down to 3 and a quarter on the central bank policy |
| 2:18.2 | rate there. And Lagarde basically said that growth is slow, but it's not recessionary, at least as |
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