The Dividend Cafe Monday - November 11, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 11 November 2024
⏱️ 15 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3YHm5qE
Market Insights on Veterans Day: Stock Movements, Credit Confidence, and Policy Updates
In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, recorded at the New York office, David discusses the unique market conditions on Veterans Day, where stock markets are open, but bond markets and banks are closed. Key topics include the stock market performance, with the Dow rising by over 300 points while big tech sectors fell. The conversation touches on the ongoing market breadth, low volatility as indicated by the VIX, and tightening credit spreads, suggesting both bullish indicators and potential market complacency. Additionally, upcoming policy changes under the new administration are reviewed, along with oil price fluctuations and potential long-term debt issuance by the Treasury. The episode concludes with a note on upcoming meetings between Presidents Biden and Trump and encourages the audience to send their questions to be addressed in future episodes.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
01:04 Stock Market Performance on Veterans Day
01:28 Sector Analysis and Market Breadth
03:00 Credit Markets and Economic Indicators
04:42 Valuations and Investment Strategies
06:56 Public Policy and Election Ramifications
09:19 Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Policy
12:32 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.5 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. Well, hello and welcome to the Monday |
| 0:14.1 | edition of Dividend Cafe. I am actually recording at my desk here in the New York office because |
| 0:19.5 | we're having a few technical difficulties, |
| 0:22.2 | but nevertheless, we have a fair amount of things to go through today. And it's one of those |
| 0:27.6 | days where we had one of these about a month ago as well, where on Columbus Day, the stock market |
| 0:33.7 | was open. The stock market was open today. Veterans Day, but the bond market was not, |
| 0:40.6 | and banking system was not. And there are only two days a year that are like that. And this is the |
| 0:47.7 | second one. So I just want to quickly reiterate my comments that there are inefficiencies and things that I think are suboptimal |
| 0:56.6 | just based on the way asset allocators work and traders work, that when some of the activity |
| 1:03.8 | you would normally expect a risk asset cannot also be accompanied by issues in the cash markets, |
| 1:09.7 | in currency, and certainly even in fixed income, |
| 1:13.6 | it does theoretically throw things off a bit. |
| 1:17.0 | Now, the stock market opened today up the Dow up over 300 points, even as the NASDAQ and |
| 1:23.1 | the S&P were down. |
| 1:25.1 | And it got up near 500 points at one point. It closed up 300. It gave some of that |
| 1:32.4 | back. But again, the rally was not really focused in some of the big tech things, the bulk of which |
| 1:39.3 | were actually down today. Technology was the worst performing sector down almost 1%. And yet consumer discretionary |
| 1:47.5 | was top up one in three quarters, but financials, industrial, some of these pro-cyclical |
| 1:53.9 | sectors that rallied hard last week continued today. You look at oil right now, which was down about, let me make sure I want to give |
| 2:03.7 | you exact number, 3%, closing it, just over $68 a barrel. And the midstream side of the market was up |
| 2:12.3 | 9% last week. It's up over 40% on the year now. And that non-correlation between the pipelines |
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