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The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe Monday - May 6, 2024

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Retirement Planning, Business, Monetary Policy, Dividend Growth Investing, Investing, Macro Economics, Estate Planning, Wealth Management

4.9572 Ratings

🗓️ 6 May 2024

⏱️ 14 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44ut20E

The jobs report Friday was the talk of the town, with 175,000 new jobs being created in April, well below the 240,000 estimate. It was the government sector that most missed expectations, with the private sector representing 167,000 of the new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%.

Wages were only up +0.1% on the month and are now up +3.9% year-over-year. There is a real irony in how this gets digested, because some say, “oh no, wage growth lower than we want is bad” and others say “yay, too much wage growth creates a wage-price inflation spiral so this is good to see as a disinflationary sign. I think both camps have it wrong.

29 million of the roughly 158 million people employed in the United States works for a S&P 500 company (18% or so). Some I have shared this with expressed surprise it wasn’t higher, and some were shocked it was so high. Data is in the eye of the beholder, I guess.

The bottom 50% of health care spenders account for a grand total of 3% of total health care costs (less than $390 per year). The top 5%, on the other hand, account for 51% of all health care spending.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividing Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:12.6

Well, hello and welcome to the Monday edition of Dividing Cafe.

0:16.6

We're recording a little later than normal Monday because I am actually in Greenbrier, West Virginia,

0:22.6

at a corporate executive summit, and they had a massive storm over the last hour that took out Wi-Fi and things like that.

0:30.6

So we're pretty sure that we're able to record right now and that I'm not just speaking into a black box for no reason.

0:38.5

Hopefully you're getting this video and everything has come together okay, but check out

0:43.1

Dividoncafe.com for all the things that went into today's Dividendon Cafe.

0:46.9

The markets were up for the fourth day in a row.

0:50.1

The Dow was up 176 points.

0:52.9

Do I believe that they announced a quantitative tapering slowdown,

0:59.4

slowing down the pace at which they're removing liquidity out of financial markets

1:05.9

and that it's a coincidence that the market went up four days in a row after doing so.

1:12.4

I don't think it's a coincidence.

1:13.5

I also don't know that I think it's the entirety of the explanation.

1:17.7

And it was a question somebody had asked me as far as what I thought the impact on debt

1:23.2

and equity markets would be real estate as well, for that matter, both commercial and residential.

1:29.1

And I'll say to you all the same thing I said in Dividendon Cafe today and said to this gentleman.

1:36.1

I think that largely markets will respond when it is a surprise, when it was not fully expected or baked in.

1:43.9

And clearly them going from $60 billion a month of tapering or tightening their balance sheet down

1:54.4

to $25 billion a month was not fully expected.

1:59.5

Is it a needle mover?

2:00.7

We'll see. There's other factors that

...

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