The Dividend Cafe Monday - June 17, 2024
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 17 June 2024
⏱️ 18 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3KSk5VG
Dividend Insights: Market Trends, Fed Influence, and Economic Policies
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, David provides a comprehensive commentary on the current market dynamics, including summaries on housing markets, federal policies, corporate taxes, and bond yields. Key topics include the performance of the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq, the impact of public policies on elections, and an insightful analogy comparing market trends to Roger Federer's tennis career. Additional focus is given to European political stability, U.S. corporate tax rates, and commercial real estate metrics. The session concludes with observations on national vacancy rates, Fed rate predictions, and the law of conservation of outrage in human behavior.
00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:41 Market Summary and Key Highlights 01:42 Stock and Bond Market Correlation 03:22 Market Breadth and Top Heaviness 08:10 Corporate Tax Rates and Economic Impact 11:02 Housing Market Insights 12:54 Commercial Real Estate and Office Vacancies 14:16 Federal Reserve and Oil Market Update 15:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.6 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.8 | Well, hello and welcome to this Monday edition, a Dividend Cafe. I am actually, you know it's |
| 0:19.2 | summertime because I'm here recording at our house in East Hampton, |
| 0:23.6 | although I fly back to the city early tomorrow morning, but nevertheless wrote most of today's |
| 0:30.3 | Dividendon Cafe from out here. And there's a lot of moving parts in the Dividendon Cafe today, |
| 0:36.8 | which I guess is appropriate because there's a lot of moving parts in the Dividing Cafe today, which I guess is appropriate because there's a lot of moving parts in my schedule this week as well. |
| 0:44.2 | But let's just start off with the summary of today's market action. |
| 0:48.2 | And then I want to get into a few other things about housing and the Fed and our normal topics. |
| 0:54.4 | And I'm even starting to delve into some of the public policy things that are going to be |
| 0:59.1 | a big part of the election analysis that we're going to be doing later in the summer. |
| 1:05.3 | The Dow today closed up 190 points, a half a percentage point. |
| 1:10.6 | The S&P was up three quarters of a percent. |
| 1:13.8 | The NASDAQ was up almost 1%. |
| 1:16.1 | At one point, the Dow was down about 100 points. |
| 1:19.4 | That lasted less than an hour and a half. |
| 1:22.1 | And then it just steadily increased throughout the day, |
| 1:24.4 | but nothing really dramatic. |
| 1:26.9 | And in fact, you still had today |
| 1:28.7 | utilities down over 1%, even though consumer discretionary was up over 1.4%. So there was a lot |
| 1:37.6 | of divergence in results. The 10-year bond yield was up seven basis points today, but only to 4.28. So some will say, |
| 1:48.0 | David, you've talked so much about this high correlation between stocks and bonds, and yet we have |
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