Hi folks, welcome to another one of our political chats, and this week we're going to be talking about the demographic clock that is ticking and how you can already see the problems occurring.

Not the demographics that you might think either. It's not even necessarily, although partially, about native versus non-native.

It's actually about the aging out of the boomers that we're going to get to. Is how we used to talk about demographics before 1997? Correct. But before we begin, of course, come to our live event that is on Saturday, the 11th of April, this Saturday. So you've only got a few more days. We're going to have fun, we're going to have beer. We're going to have a few protesters, apparently. According to the police, but they've assured us that everything will go

smoothly. So link in the description. We will see you there. Right. Let's get in some polling.

So here's a poll from Good Growth Foundation. I'm not actually familiar with Good Growth Foundation,

but 27% not great. Labor 20%, Conservatives, 19%

Greens on 15, and Lib Dems on 12. Modelled out, that looks like reform, not getting a government

would have to lean on the Conservatives to get a majority.

I'm not sure Greens will be that low, but...

Yeah, well.

But I mean, this is the problem when you've got five different parties with not actually

much in it between them.

You get slight imbalances.

And more to the point, how exactly do those votes shake out across the constituencies?

You can produce with slightly different assumptions, wildly different numbers.

Yeah.

Well, yeah, absolutely.

I mean, I'm glad I don't have to do

predictions. Yes. Now, one thing about political commentary is that predictions are 10 a penny

and worth less than that. They very rarely age well, and you learn very quickly not to try and live and

die on your predictions. And so I just try not to make predictions, frankly, because they're just, you end up with egg on your face. And everyone ends up with egg on their face. So it's just not worth it. I mean, look at Rory Stewart, who's currently burning his own credibility by saying, no, no, no, Kamala's going to win, no, no, this is going to happen. Brexit's going to fail. It's like, what have you predicted that it's been correct?

Looking at Rory Stewart is, he's always going to be a losing game because he looks like

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